This week's financial results and economic calendar (3/11 to 3/15) pay attention to the domestic spring battle and US CPI! Determining the direction of Japan-US monetary policy

This week's points
Nervous price movements are expected in the Tokyo stock market this week. There is a strong sense of optimism about the Nikkei Average against the backdrop of expectations for a soft landing in the US economy. There is a possibility that it will affect monetary policy in the United StatesUS Consumer Price Index (CPI)The trend will be confirmed through retail sales, etc. Meanwhile, to the fact that stock prices are in the highest price range in historyThe sense of caution also continues to smolder. DomesticallySpring Battle Intensive Answer DayIt is ahead, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in the Bank of Japan's expectations for policy normalization. Also, the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting (3/18 to 19) and the US FOMC (3/19 to 20) are ahead for the next week, and it will be a week where people are aware of how difficult it is to handle.

Meanwhile, as the spring breeze begins to blow,Are changes coming to market prices. From this week onwardsMarket trends are a major pointIt looks like it's going to happen. While a virtuous cycle in the Japanese economy through wage increases is in view, in the stock marketbanksYaDomestic demandFunds are moving towards investment targets to replace semiconductor-related ones, etc. Also, depending on interest rate trends in Japan and the US, investment targets include high technology, banks, etc.Cyclically changingThere is a possibility. The shift of funds to the TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index) type, which has been delayed, is also likely to accelerate. There is also a view that “I am concerned that the United States is strengthening semiconductor regulations against China.” Under these circumstances, it has been pointed out that there is a possibility that the search involving generative AI will expand from semiconductor-related sole to services and data centers that utilize AI.

This week's CPI (Consumer Price Index), PPI (Producer Price Index), retail sales in the USA succession of important economic statistics. If a slowdown in growth can be confirmed in the February inflation index, observations of a reduction in US interest rates will intensify. Domestically,The Spring Battle movement is the most notable point. If wage increases penetrate even more,Tailwind for domestic stocksIt looks like it's going to be. This is more than the Nikkei averageGood material for TOPIX brandsIt is conceivable. The concentrated response date for Spring Battle is the 13th, and the 1st response aggregation results are announced on the 15th, so if the results are strongSpeculations about policy normalization by the Bank of Japan are also likely to rise. If the Bank of Japan's policy revision/change period gets earlier,Financial stocksIt makes it easier to attract attention. Also, with the incorporation of the Nikkei Average at the end of the month, it is likely that sales on the scale of 500 billion yen will occur widely in the future for existing adopted stocks.

The dollar and yen are likely to fall this week. For the Bank of Japan's monetary policyThis spring fight could be a game changerTherefore, the appreciation of the yen will gradually progress towards the centralized response date (Chief Exchange Strategist Goto Yujiro of Nomura Securities). Wage increase trends were confirmed in the spring battle, and there is a possibility that momentum to lift the negative interest rate policy will increase further in preparation for the monetary policy meeting next week, and it is easy to continue the trend of buying back yen. Also, as expectations for interest rate cuts in the US are smoldering, the exchange rate is moving towards a strong yen trend. Meanwhile, although an increase in the US CPI is being wary, there is a view that sales will suppress the increase in a situation where the dollar and yen rebound.

Also, on the 11th, the emergency loan system introduced immediately after the bankruptcy of the Bank of America Silicon Valley Bank may be suspended, so it seems necessary to keep an eye on whether a sense of caution will increase in the market.

Last week's market price points
1. The Nikkei Average fell for the first time in 6 weeks, and the rebound did not reach 40,000 yen on the 8th
2. The yen exchange rate rose rapidly, recovered to the 146 yen level, and the number of policy committee members inclined to lift negative interest rates in March increased
3. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testifies to the US Congress that the conviction necessary to start cutting interest rates is “not far away”
4. Tesla drops out of the top 10 US companies by market capitalization
5. Libyan temporarily increased by 16%, temporary suspension of construction of a new EV plant and sudden policy change
6. The US unemployment rate is at a high level for the first time in 2 years, and there is a sense of deceleration in the labor market
7. AI champion NVIDIA continues to rise in record stock prices　

The Nikkei Average fell to 39,688.94 yen in the Tokyo stock market last week, 221.88 yen (0.56%) lower than the previous weekend, for the first time in 6 weeks. Last week, the Nikkei Average quickly hit the 40,000 yen range for the first time, rising to 40,472 yen at one point. However, on the 7th, early negative interest rate cancellation observations surfaced, and the exchange rate fluctuated sharply due to the appreciation of the yen, so it suddenly stalled.The yen exchange rate rose rapidly this weekI did it. In the background,Observations that the Bank of Japan's negative interest rate policy is about to be liftedThere is. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo and deliberation committee member Nakagawa Junko successively stated on the 7th that “accuracy is increasing little by little” to achieve the 2% price stability target, and market participants are aware of the possibility of abolishing the negative interest rate policy introduced in 2016/1 during the time of former Governor Kuroda at the next monetary policy meeting on 3/18 and 19 at the earliest. Also, Reuters reported that the Bank of Japan is increasing the number of policy committee members inclined to lift negative interest rates in March. It is said that the reason is that wage increases are expected to accelerate this year.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is in both the US House of RepresentativesConfidence in interest rate cuts can be obtained not too farThey testified, and the fact that they were taken as dovish also invited dollar sales and yen purchases. On the 6th, the US February ADP employment statistics fell short of market expectations, and it became a source of dollar sales. Although the number of people employed in the non-farm sector exceeded expectations in the February US employment statistics announced by the US Department of Labor on the 8th, the previous month's figures were drastically revised downward. Also, since the unemployment rate and average hourly wage became weaker than expected, dollar sales spread along with the decline in long-term US interest rates. Furthermore, the unemployment rate rose to a two-year high.The labor market is still strong, but there is also a sense of deceleration. Thus, although the content of the US employment statistics is not enough to change the Fed's stance, it seems that at least expectations for interest rate cuts by the end of the year are justified. In short-term financial marketsFully factor in the start of interest rate cuts in JuneMovement is being watched. The dollar yen hit a high of 146.52 yen at one point for the first time in about a month.