[Morning Report] US March retail sales unexpectedly grew and expanded, dollar yen broke through the 154 yen level, and US interest rate decline observations receded

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US retail sales in March unexpectedly grew and the dollar and yen broke through the 154 yen level
US retail sales for March, as announced by the U.S. Department of Commerce, rose 0.7% from the previous month, surpassed market expectations by 0.4%, and recorded a high level since September last year. The previous fiscal year was revised upward from a 0.6% increase to a 0.9% increase. In particular, retail without stores grew significantly. Gas station sales also increased drastically due to rising gasoline prices. It showed the strength of private consumption, and the content further receded expectations of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Observations of a decline in US interest rates recede, completely factored in before November disappear - with strong indicators
Since US retail sales grew more than expected, observations of a reduction in US interest rates by the end of the year have further receded. After the data was announced in the swap market, the movement completely incorporating the start of interest rate cuts before November disappeared.

The yen fell to the 154 yen level for the first time in about 34 years against the dollar, and selling pressure was due to rising long-term US interest rates
The exchange rate of yen fell to the 154 yen range of 1 dollar in the New York foreign exchange market on the 15th, breaking the low since 1990/6. In addition to exceeding market expectations, US retail sales announced in the morning of New York time also responded to the fact that the previous month's worth was also revised upward.
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There is a “real risk” that the FRB will raise the policy interest rate to 6.5% - UBS
Strong growth and deep-seated inflation are combined in the United States, and the probability that the financial authorities will implement interest rate hikes rather than interest rate cuts is increasing, according to UBS Group strategists. The view was expressed that there is a possibility that borrowing costs will be raised to 6.5% next year.

NY Fed manufacturing business climate index shrinks for 5 consecutive months - purchase prices rise
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