More DD and Some Speculation. NFA
This is a mix of experience, DD and speculation. Do your own research! ❤️
Lets begin by talking about Texas Bitcoin Farm.
in this article itimplies this is the first batch. (for the new 2 acre location)
3300 miners for ~5 million
the offering they just made would secure roughly 7000 more. (more on this below)
The largest publicly traded bitcoin mining operation Marathon Digital Holdings has 223M shares total. (compare this to the following)
With the dilution of recent developments that would put us around 400m. If we did perform a RS, (again, we would have to fall under 1c per share for x amount of days or pass deadline after extension is granted in may) we would experience a 100 for one split, dropping total shares to 4m. 4 million. thats mind blowing.
This to me leaves room for more offerings. More growth. Once this mine in Texas begins going I don’t see any more reverse splits coming, although, this one wouldn’t be bad for the long term benefit of the company.
It would give the company room to secure capital in the future for expansion. Remember: if you know your company well and the business they’re in, it’s not always bad. It’ll look bad and people who don’t understand the process will be hurt. But it’s not always bad.
Companies like Castor Maritime give reverse splits a bad name, where the CEO has been burning investors for YEARS executing reverse splits yearly followed by private issuing. reverse solits already kind of suck for a traditional company. This is different. The way bitcoin compounds in value is unlike anything that has to do with paper money. The less value paper money has, the more value it has. And the way things are going, we’re due to adjust for inflation.
Offerings aren’t always bad: they look bad on the charts, sure. But when a company has a track record for compounding growth and funding growth it’s positive for long term players. ESPECIALLY in crypto. I was in Marathon in 2020, and I’m still holding :) My strategy is to accumulate, ill sell my initial investment during peak season of halving, and as it dips back down during the “off seasons” i expand my positioning. my strategy is an 8 year high reward play. Sometime in 2025 I’ll sell Marathon and expand my position here. I mean even Marathon just registered 750 million worth of shelf shares back on October 23rd. They haven’t sold them, but they will do the same. All the companies involved in mining do this leading up to halvings.
So let’s imagine: what we perceive to be the worst case scenario. The dreaded split. At 1c per share that’s 10 to one. Now instead of 400 million (including the shelf warrants they just sold) that puts us at 4 million total shares. Roughly 1/50th of marathon as of this writing. At that point if we had the same market cap as Marathon, due to the difference in total shares: 98% higher than their current valuation. (this is JUST an example i included for JohnCena96) All the miners are being shorted because Wall Street thinks they can play games. In years past, they were successful. People who understand the nuances of crypto are changing that.
With that being said, a split isn’t all bad. Neither are offerings. With the way these companies assets are about to compound in value over the next rolling calendar year, it’s tough to envision but it’s essentially harmless. (Aside from people selling who don’t understand the ways crypto will affect the valuation of this company.) it’s unfamiliar territory. If we look back in 4 years we will see a trend in the charts reflecting the halvings. It wouldn’t surprise me if it resembled a long term etf: spiking leading up to halving, fluctuation post halving, and dropping off post BTC ATH. the reality is: during the years in between halvings, the earnings aren’t really there. It looks bad when you look at fundamentals and see 2 years of high numbers followed by 2 years of red. There is a trend in the past that would entail a company needs to constantly do public offerings to stay afloat, with the coming price hike of bitcoin these companies will become self sufficient. No longer needing to exercise offerings to stay afloat outside of expansions. You can invest in these guys similarly to bitcoin. Long term, take profits when you start to see them liquidate their wallets. You can reliably time peak season for bitcoin based off empirical data. Due to the nature of decentralization we have that capability. November and December pre halving it begins to gain, February through the following January is a bull run. Miners sit on their bitcoin during this time and as more people buy in it goes up. Then around November or December the year of the halving miners will begin to offload, people tend to watch this event because decentralization allows you to watch their wallets. Then you witness profit taking and consolidation. Most people are in Bitcoin for a retirement fund. It’s not going to crash. The chart might look like it when selling occurs, but it’s not going to happen.
Companies like Castor Maritime give reverse splits a bad name, where the CEO has been burning investors for YEARS executing reverse splits yearly followed by private issuing. reverse solits already kind of suck for a traditional company. This is different. The way bitcoin compounds in value is unlike anything that has to do with paper money. The less value paper money has, the more value it has. And the way things are going, we’re due to adjust for inflation.
Offerings aren’t always bad: they look bad on the charts, sure. But when a company has a track record for compounding growth and funding growth it’s positive for long term players. ESPECIALLY in crypto. I was in Marathon in 2020, and I’m still holding :) My strategy is to accumulate, ill sell my initial investment during peak season of halving, and as it dips back down during the “off seasons” i expand my positioning. my strategy is an 8 year high reward play. Sometime in 2025 I’ll sell Marathon and expand my position here. I mean even Marathon just registered 750 million worth of shelf shares back on October 23rd. They haven’t sold them, but they will do the same. All the companies involved in mining do this leading up to halvings.
So let’s imagine: what we perceive to be the worst case scenario. The dreaded split. At 1c per share that’s 10 to one. Now instead of 400 million (including the shelf warrants they just sold) that puts us at 4 million total shares. Roughly 1/50th of marathon as of this writing. At that point if we had the same market cap as Marathon, due to the difference in total shares: 98% higher than their current valuation. (this is JUST an example i included for JohnCena96) All the miners are being shorted because Wall Street thinks they can play games. In years past, they were successful. People who understand the nuances of crypto are changing that.
With that being said, a split isn’t all bad. Neither are offerings. With the way these companies assets are about to compound in value over the next rolling calendar year, it’s tough to envision but it’s essentially harmless. (Aside from people selling who don’t understand the ways crypto will affect the valuation of this company.) it’s unfamiliar territory. If we look back in 4 years we will see a trend in the charts reflecting the halvings. It wouldn’t surprise me if it resembled a long term etf: spiking leading up to halving, fluctuation post halving, and dropping off post BTC ATH. the reality is: during the years in between halvings, the earnings aren’t really there. It looks bad when you look at fundamentals and see 2 years of high numbers followed by 2 years of red. There is a trend in the past that would entail a company needs to constantly do public offerings to stay afloat, with the coming price hike of bitcoin these companies will become self sufficient. No longer needing to exercise offerings to stay afloat outside of expansions. You can invest in these guys similarly to bitcoin. Long term, take profits when you start to see them liquidate their wallets. You can reliably time peak season for bitcoin based off empirical data. Due to the nature of decentralization we have that capability. November and December pre halving it begins to gain, February through the following January is a bull run. Miners sit on their bitcoin during this time and as more people buy in it goes up. Then around November or December the year of the halving miners will begin to offload, people tend to watch this event because decentralization allows you to watch their wallets. Then you witness profit taking and consolidation. Most people are in Bitcoin for a retirement fund. It’s not going to crash. The chart might look like it when selling occurs, but it’s not going to happen.
315 bitcoin a year with current setup- roughly 12 to 13 million usd next year with current setup at current pricing.
at previous ath: 21.2 million
at 80k: 25.2 million
If they use the proceeds from the recent direct offering, to buy more antminer s19s: double every number above.
I am fairly confident they will put this recent funding into expansion, as these companies tend to focus on aggressive expansion, as time is of the essence. i would expect a PR release within the next 30 days from BETS regarding another site going under construction or more cards being purchased to maximize profits at an existing location. If they get the ball rolling by the beginning of this year, they could have another site going to compound those profits before we experience the selloff from large scale miners in 2025.
the difficulty with these companies in the stock market is largely due to the market revolving around earnings reports. bitcoin miners are companies who fundamentals depend on their assets. delisting this stock would be a mistake, and there really is no bad scenario. as long as you manage your risk tolerance, never sell for a loss, youre positioned to win. you can literally just go back to bed if you dont like what you see. theres opportunity for short term gains, and if thats your motive, so be it. im patient and plan to be here building a MASSIVE position for the 2027 - 2028 halving.
Some Marathon Facts:
14,904 Bitcoin at previous ATH is worth right under a billion, if theyre mining that per year theyve become a billion dollar company. We’re GOING to surpass that (not speculation, factuality.) By February 2025 we will be well into the new ath, and miners will be ready to dump. I’m not one to speculate (it’s part of the job) but I’m confident we will see at the MINIMUM 80,000 per bitcoin. Most likely a range between 80k to 100k. Let’s say they hit 80k. This puts Mara at 1.2B a year. That’s currently the largest publicly traded mining company out there.
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