Market Review+Core Position Analysis (20/02-23/02 2024)
Last week's portal 👉🏻Market Review+Core Position Analysis (12/02-16/02 2024)
“Most investors see trading as a hobby because they have a full time job doing other things. If you treat trading as a business, it will pay you back like a business.” -Mark Minervini
Friendly reminder, starting this week to use logarithmic charts (more realistic)
A quick review of the market's price action this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ Sync: distributed on Tuesday, fund-raising on Thursday.
SPX>DJI>NDX
This week the market continues to repeat the work of the previous week, switching back and forth between AI concepts/big technology/semiconductors and market breadth, and patiently waiting to see when this pace changes.
NDX and SPX weekly charts: NDX successfully tested 10MA this week, and SPX hit the top of the upward trend line for the first time in the true sense of the week after switching to a logarithmic chart;
The two important moving averages of 30MA and 40MA have remained upward. The long-term upward trend has remained intact. In the short term, we cannot even see the market's intention to retest the highest point in 2021;
I checked the weekly charts of very many stocks over the weekend, and saw that a large number of growth stocks and even momentum stocks are currently undergoing a transformation process from the first stage to the second stage. The better ones have already broken through the first stage and begun to shrink and adjust;
This is exciting. Their potential upward trend is full of limitless opportunities in the next 1-2 years, so I don't need to worry too much about short-term shocks and recuperation, wait patiently for them to come to me, or even worry about missing out on some of them, because there are so many opportunities, it's enough to focus on a few good ones.
In terms of market sentiment: AAII continues to pull between 40-50; the Fear & Greed Index is a drag between greed and extreme greed.
When these two indicators break out of the recent fluctuation range, they will have clear guidelines for individual position management.
Analysis of core positions:
Two names were cleared this week: $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US$ It was knocked out and eventually ended the transaction with a profit of 118%;
$MongoDB(MDB.US$ It was a return to break-even point and exit.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ Two days before the earnings report was released (same move as META). After the earnings report, huge trading volume once again reached a new high, but on Friday, there was also a phenomenon where many profitable sales ended. It is a contradictory name in people's minds. Traditional investors think it's too high, and even the market capitalization is trending directly against AAPL and MSFT, which makes them unable to accept it in the short term; aggressive and forward-looking investors think that its current price is reasonable and even has plenty of room for growth. After all, there is shocking growth in several consecutive financial reports, and at the same time, there is unlimited room for imagination in the long term. Judging from the results on the weekly chart, the activists currently have an advantage for the time being. For me personally, there is no need to be too anxious to operate on such a large market capitalization. The weekly chart is currently in the 7th week after the breakthrough, and there is a profit jump gap in the 7th week on the daily chart. If covered later, this gap will become a potential consumption gap, so I drew a line at the bottom of the gap as a short-term bottom line; if the profit gap is effective, I will consider cutting it in an appropriate position within the next 1-3 weeks. Currently, it accounts for 13.96% of positions. Keep watching and keep riding 🚴🏻
Note ⚠️ The breakthroughs in the first to second phase of the weekly chart (blue arrow) are above 30MA and 40MA (the two weekly lines are in a period of calm), when weekly trading volume rises sharply, and at the same time is a classic head/shoulder line breakthrough (if you were influenced by market sentiment and mass media news at the time, you would miss that epic chart opportunity, so a chart that met all perfect conditions would hardly be deceiving); along with the recent 6-month VCP pattern breakthrough, all of them are textbook-level charts (I think people will use them in the next few decades or even 100 years) (Think of it as a classic textbook-level example) 👏👇
$Meta Platforms(META.US$ On Thursday, after breaking through 488, one point was added (a purchase order set in advance). Looking back at this addition, it is questionable. There is currently no problem with the volume. The large and relatively stable name gives traders a slightly more fault tolerance rate. First, add a bottom line to this. In this small platform, the three low points will gradually rise (you need to open the chart to take a closer look), and positions will be adjusted to a certain extent within the next three weeks. The weekly chart and daily chart are currently stable. Currently, the position has been changed to 11.43%. Keep watching and keep riding 🚴🏻
It quickly came out of the first phase, breaking through the highs of the red candle with the highest trading volume before, and gradually stabilized at 30MA and 40MA, and trading volume increased. The week that followed was a sharp rise in huge trading volume. (blue arrow in the picture) 👇
$Palantir(PLTR.US$ Currently, I have been taking a slight break from the previous November high, and trading volume has shrunk. I personally love this action; since the weekly chart is accompanied by a breakthrough in the highest volume in history, I will continue to be patient. My current position is 8.14%, and I will keep riding 🚴🏻
$CrowdStrike(CRWD.US$ After poor PANW financial reporting guidelines in the same industry, it showed its ability to swim against the current, and added a little bit when it tested the 10-week EMA; I'm likely to hold it longer to unlock a new psychological experience. Currently, my position ratio has changed to 7.36% to keep riding 🚴🏻
Core position performance this week:
QQQ: +1.44%
NVDA:+8.54%
META:+2.37%
PLTR:-6.01%
CRWD:-5.39%
YTD performance:
QQQ: +6.66%
NVDA:+59.16%
META:+36.89%
PLTR:+33.78%
CRWD:+22%
Date of peak price intensity:
NDX: 19/12/2023
NVDA: 05/02/2024
META:02/02/2024
PLTR:12/02/2024
CRWD:15/12/2023
Current cash position: 28.15%
“Good traders understand that risk management isn't just something you do once in a while; it's part of your everyday trading strategy and should be applied to every trade you make.” -S.Z
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Cherry Cat : Please teach, how is YTD calculated?
sTone83OP Cherry Cat: Open yearly chart
缠中取缠 : Thank you
StellarXing : You mentioned that you looked at a lot of stock charts. How did you search for these stocks when doing this kind of research? Is the focus in a specific industry, or is the search based on some technical value or range?
Cherry Cat sTone83OP: thanks
Still don't understand much,,,
icezzz : What’s buying price for your latest batch of CRWD? I’m consider btw CRWD n PAWN
MattSully : Congrats again bro!
Excellent analysis as ever. Are you still keeping SMCI on your radar? OK seems to be keeping an eye on its short term movement
sTone83OP icezzz: 292 (near the 10-week EMA)
sTone83OP MattSully: No attention in the short term, I need to wait for it to cool down first.
sTone83OP StellarXing: MooMoo has lots of search features, you'll notice if you take a closer look