Market Review+Core Position Analysis (16/01-19/01 2024)
“A reshuffle could have a positive impact on the future development of the stock.” -Mark Minervini
Last week's road signs 👆
Here's a quick look at the market's behavior this week:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ Divided on Tuesday, attracted funds on Thursday and Friday;
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ Distributed on Tuesday and attracted funds on Thursday and Friday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ It is distributed on Tuesday and attracts funds on Thursday and Friday.
Basic consistency: DJI>NDX>SPX
SPX just hit a record high for the first time on Friday, and NDX and DJI set another record high. The 10MA on the daily chart has just broken away from 21MA and is moving in an upward direction... the market is beginning a new chapter.
NDX and SPX weekly charts: After breaking out of the large consolidation period from December 2021 to January 2024, the sky is endless upward~
Market sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index returned above 70 on Friday after experiencing two minor drops; AAII happened to have reduced its bullish ratio by quite a bit on Wednesday, corresponding to the market's operating times. At the beginning of a new upward trend, it is quite normal to have such a slightly bumpy market sentiment; any major market is born out of hesitation.
Core positions:
$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US$ After 3 days of shuffling this week, I cleared out a lot of weak hands, and I also took the opportunity to add positions twice. Strictly speaking, if this wave is for short to medium term trading, it will basically be cleared up until Wednesday and Thursday, but my trading plan is already from a higher perspective. What I value is this consolidation cycle of more than 5 months. Obviously, the risk-return ratio advantage is huge, and there is a base position built around 290 that relies on the bull flag. Combined with the many profound experiences I gained when trading it last year, I finally completed this decision. On Friday, the company announced sales that exceeded expectations in advance, and with institutional investors' long-term approval of the company, everyone rushed into the market (its products and NVDA chips have become the first choice in the market). It was as if an elephant jumped into the pool, contributing to a sharp rise of about 35%, with a turnover of +600% (the highest in history). At the same time, the three major indices closed at record highs at the same time. Please take a close look at the following two charts. Like NVDA, the last 1-2 pullbacks took a break above the 50MA of the daily chart. This chart and NVDA's chart for the same period should be recorded in every trading book. Both of these meet the requirements of almost all superbullish stocks, and should be used by future traders to continuously learn and study. The current positions are sufficient, and the current position is difficult for temporary speculators to enter, so it is good for the purity of the chips. Keep watching in the future, pay attention to their reaction to good/bad news in the market, accept that it is likely to be a potentially bumpy operation, and keep riding 🚴🏻
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ There was no operation this week. I just kept the position and watched it slowly move upward. Currently, it is the 9th day after the breakthrough, with 19% of the five-month platform breakout point. Short-term adjustments are acceptable. The following two charts should be recorded along with SMCI charts in stock trading books as classic textbooks. Please carefully compare the SMCI and NVDA charts to find their similarities. Keep riding for now 🚴🏻
$CrowdStrike(CRWD.US$ There was no operation this week. The upward trend has been maintained very well. The daily charts of 10MA and 21MA have just begun to expand; the weekly chart is close to record highs to see if they will start organizing and resting around that price. I've been holding it for more than 2 months and continuing to ride 🚴🏻
$Meta Platforms(META.US$ I broke through the line before the test on Wednesday. I continued to add positions after seeing buying power. In the early stages of a potentially big market, I wouldn't skimp on using cash. It was no problem for me. It finally set a new historical high on Friday. The steady action was as always, showing the characteristics that stocks with the highest institutional/fund holding ratio should have, and keep riding 🚴🏻
$Uber Technologies(UBER.US$ My position here is enough. No action this week. The big teacup on the weekly chart was broken through. Watching it close at a record high, his trend is similar to Meta. He is a name with a stable personality. Keep riding 🚴🏻
$PDD Holdings(PDD.US$ It has been 6 weeks since the price range has been consolidated, and the Hong Kong and Chinese markets seem to be at the peak of sell-off. If the mood is extreme, it would be a good sign. PDD is still holding its price range in the face of headwinds. Currently, it has been holding for more than 3 months, and the position is enough to keep riding 🚴🏻
$New Oriental(EDU.US$ Currently, I am facing more pressure than PDD. I will pay attention near the white and red lines marked on the daily chart. The trading plan is already clear (buy/sell). It is one of the names I will focus on the most next week, and price behavior will always rank first.
Core position performance this week (QQQ for comparison):
QQQ +2.84%
SMCI +24.68%
NVDA +8.74%
CRWD +2.54%
META +2.39%
UBER +3.02%
PDD -3.36%
EDU -7.40%
YTD performance (QQQ for comparison):
QQQ +2.85%
SMCI +48.93%
NVDA +20.13%
CRWD +13.79%
META +8.33%
UBER +5.75%
PDD -1.82%
EDU -1.81%
In other small to medium positions (positions between 0.5% and 5%) $ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas(KOLD.US$ $Arm Holdings(ARM.US$ $Teekay Tankers(TNK.US$ $Camtek(CAMT.US$ It was a good performance last week.
Current cash position: 17.2%, maintain discipline and move forward optimism~
“Being confident doesn't mean always being right, it's about knowing that you can handle it even if things don't go according to plan.” -S.Z
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Ondo : How often do you adjust positions and exchange shares, if there are no volume and price factors
sTone83OP Ondo: There are two cycles: 1. Medium to short term (generally 2 weeks to 2 months), medium to long term (6 months or more on the basis that the trend has not been disrupted)
Cherry Cat : Thanks for sharing!
Ondo sTone83OP: How are you generally different in selecting medium- to long-term targets in the short term. It is based on industry cycles or other factors
sTone83OP Ondo: It is basically based on the length of the base (the cycle used to consolidate before breaking through) and the cycle the trend is in (beginning stage? halfway? late?) Let's decide
MattSully : Excellent summary and thanks for sharing your thoughts and analysis bro
Congrats on your trading outcomes!
icezzz : Thanks for sharing, learnt a lot
151083369 : Has UBER broken through the VCP? The correction did not exceed 10%, and it has already surpassed the previous high. It is uncertain whether the foundation has been laid.
sTone83OP 151083369: Calling it a VCP is a bit difficult because it took less than 3 weeks to adjust, breaking through the previous high after two downgrades. It's more like a continuation of the upward trend after breaking through the August to October consolidation cycle. Recently, there was a shallow and short break above 50MA; on the weekly chart, it was a successful test of 10MA. There is no need to get used to certainty, and we need to get used to and fully accept all uncertainties. All we can do is control the downward amplitude of our transactions within a relatively small and acceptable range (stop loss, exit actions) in the midst of uncertainty, and at the same time allow the upward uncertainty to freely develop Bloomberg and accumulate profits through continuous repetition.
151083369 sTone83OP: Thank God for the guidance
I've almost read Mark's third book, and I'm still learning.
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