Market Review+Core Position Analysis (08/04-12/04 2024)
Last week in review 👉🏻Market Review+Core Position Analysis (01/04-05/04 2024)
“If the index falls, but the stock setup surges and the breakthrough is effective, I'll buy the stock! But if the index hits new highs, and few stocks are set correctly according to my own standards, or few trades show progress, I'll hold a lot of cash... even if the popular average index soars!
How long will it take? It doesn't matter how long!!
Can you do that?
If that's not the case, then your chances of surpassing the market in trading leading stocks are slim.”
How long will it take? It doesn't matter how long!!
Can you do that?
If that's not the case, then your chances of surpassing the market in trading leading stocks are slim.”
-Marc Minervini
A quick review of this week's markets:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ Funding is drawn on Tuesday and Thursday, and distributed on Wednesday and Friday;
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ Divided on Tuesday, distributed on Wednesday and Friday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ Divided on Tuesday and distributed on Friday.
NDX > SPX > DJI
A week of huge fluctuations. We talked about the daily chart for a few weeks before, and things don't develop “as they should” every day. The DJI index crashed first. NDX and SPX formed a huge sky pool above the gap and faced a huge risk of being cut. If cut, then all the people left behind in the pool will become the seller's friends and provide a large amount of supply to the market. If this large amount of supply matches the emotional interaction, the scene will be difficult to control in the short term.
Faced with these potential subsequent chain events, an unfluctuating account yield curve is also likely to outperform the market index and the vast majority of market participants in the short term. Traders who have been engaged in swing trading for a long time will understand by backtesting their previous account yield curves 🙂
NDX and SPX weekly chart: Strictly speaking, NDX and SPX have only had two distribution weeks in the last 6 weeks. The corresponding futures NQMAIN and ESMAIN have completed 4 distribution weeks, reflecting the specific situation:
Although futures have consumed a large amount of supply, the actual supply of NDX and SPX stocks to be digested in the last two weeks is still quite large compared to futures, so it is easy to understand what is likely to happen if the index rises again in the short term.
In terms of market sentiment:
The AAII side is still fluctuating within the original range, but the neutral ratio reached a higher percentage this week;
The Fear & Greed Index continues last week's downward breakout trend and has entered the fear zone, where the current sentiment is ahead of the market.
I need to be patient and wait until these emotions are fully released or close to being released; these take time.
Core holdings:
$ProShares Short QQQ(PSQ.US$ The position was closed at a loss of 0.6%. The trading problem here is that the stop loss settings are too tight.
Next, I came up with a new plan (PSQ's price fluctuations are slightly rough and not detailed enough) and chose to short sell directly $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ This time, I chose half of the previous position percentage, and adjusted the stop-loss scale slightly more. After the transaction, I saw that the entry point was instantly left at the bottom of the car 😅. The original stop-loss line continued to be in effect. Holding a highly liquid short selling position like QQQ in such a position has no pressure on me at all. Currently, all factors are beneficial to me. I only need to follow the original plan and let the market give me the answers 🚴🏻
Profit and loss of core holdings and their share:
Current cash share: 85.58%
I booked a ticket to 🇹🇭 after closing on Friday, just in time for their Songkran Festival. I was ready to relax and rest for two weeks, and wait quietly for the next gust of wind in the market after being fully charged 🚴🏻
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
