Market Review + Core Position Analysis (06/05-10/05 2024)
Review of last week👉🏻Market review + Core position analysis (29/04-03/05 2024)
"Trading should be like a gecko, staying still on the wall all the time, but quickly devouring any mosquitoes that appear, then returning to calmness and waiting for the next opportunity." - Jim Simons (R.I.P)
Quick review of this week's market behavior:
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ Divergence on Tuesday;
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ Divergence on Tuesday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ Divergence on Tuesday, absorption on Thursday.
DJi>SPX>NDX
A week with significantly reduced trading volume, almost no supply. SPX Follow Through Day (FTD) has not yet appeared, but there is very good price action. The breadth improves daily. A large number of swing traders and position traders on Twitter seem exceptionally excited, with the vast majority participating...
On the daily chart, will last Friday's significant upward gap be filled (filling the gap is normal, does not mean the uptrend is invalid, not filling it indicates a very strong uptrend)? This is another important observation point for the next two weeks;
The market currently does not provide enough information for me to enter with confidence. The situation is likely to gradually become clear in the next two weeks. The historical average low point of SPX in May falls on May 23rd. No need to predict, patiently wait for the market's opinion 🚴🏻
Weekly charts of NDX and SPX:
The long-term upward trend is well maintained, and the price has already returned above the 10-week moving average. Let's see if the trading volume will recover in the next two weeks? And how will the price behavior be after the volume recovery?
In terms of market sentiment:
The AAII bull and bear ratio have reached recent highs and lows respectively. This data will be updated every Wednesday. After the important data report next Wednesday, the corresponding AAII sentiment on that day will be clearer.
The Fear & Greed Index has also moved away from the bottom and returned to the neutral area.
Core holdings:
$iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ Currently continue to hold short sell positions, with the stop loss remaining unchanged.
$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ Still holding the original short sell positions, stop loss remains unchanged, will use price corresponding to trade volume (NDX, NQmain) changes as the core reference factor.
Current cash position: 74.55%
"Based on my 30 years of personal experience and historical analysis of every market cycle since the early 20th century, I can assure you that nothing has changed too much. In fact, history repeats itself." -Mark Minervini
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