Market Review+Core Position Analysis (06/05-10/05 2024)
Last week in review 👉🏻Market Review+Core Position Analysis (29/04-03/05 2024)
“Trade like a gecko, usually lying motionless on a wall. Once mosquitoes appear, they quickly eat them, then calm down and wait for the next opportunity.” -Jim.Simons (R.I.P)
A quick review of this week's market behavior:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ Tuesday disagreement;
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ Tuesday disagreement;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ Divided on Tuesday, attracted funds on Thursday.
dji>spx>ndx
A week where trading volume was drastically reduced, there was almost no supply. The SPX Follow-up Day (FTD) still hasn't appeared, but there is very good price behavior, and the breadth is getting better day by day. A large number of swing traders and position traders on Twitter are extremely excited, and the vast majority have already participated...
Will the large upward gap in the daily chart last Friday be made up (the correction is normal; it does not mean that the upward trend is not valid; failure to make up indicates that the upward trend is extremely strong)? Another important observation point for the next two weeks;
The market has not yet given enough information to give me confidence to enter. The situation is likely to gradually become clear in the next two weeks. It just so happens that SPX's historical average low in May was on May 23. There is no need to make predictions; wait patiently for the market's opinion 🚴🏻
NDX and SPX weekly charts:
The large-scale upward trend has been well preserved, and the price has now returned above the 10-week EMA to see if trading volume will resume in the next two weeks? And what is the price behavior after returning to trading volume?
In terms of market sentiment:
The ratio of AAII watching bulls and watching bears has reached recent highs and lows respectively. The data will be updated every Wednesday, and the AAII sentiment for that day will be more clear after the important data report next Wednesday;
The Fear & Greed Index also got rid of the bottom and returned to near the neutral zone.
Core holdings:
$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM.US$ Currently, short selling positions continue to be held, and the stop loss remains unchanged.
$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ Currently, the original short selling position is still held, and the stop loss remains unchanged. Changes in price corresponding trading volume (NDX, nqMain) will be the core reference factor.
Current cash position: 74.55%
“Based on my 30 years of personal experience and historical analysis of every market cycle since the early 20th century, I can assure you that nothing has changed much. In fact, history repeats itself over and over again.” -Mark Minervini
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