Market Review+Core Position Analysis (01/04-05/04 2024)
Last week in review 👉🏻Market Review+Core Position Analysis (25/03-28/03 2024)
“Major profitable deals came into play right away... [They] acted differently, they burst and went, and I never needed to go through a period of failure with them.” -Peter Brandt
A quick review of this week's market behavior:
$NASDAQ 100 Index(.NDX.US$ with $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US$ distributed on Tuesday and Thursday;
$Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US$ Dispatched on Tuesday and Wednesday.
SPX>NDX>DJI
This week was an obvious distribution week in terms of stocks;
It is worth noting the difference in trading volume between the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 actual stocks and index futures on Thursday and Friday: actual stock trading volume ~ Thursday > Friday, futures trading volume ~ Thursday < Friday; in combination with SPX, SPY, and QQQ, the three most active options are excessively unbalanced bullish/bearish on Thursday and Friday, so it's easy to understand the differences in index and futures trading volume;
Also, the 30MA, which I have been using to track this upward trend, was also broken through by the longest red candle with a large trading volume on Thursday (the longest red candle in the past 5 months), which is one of the most important factors in choosing one-click clearance after the day's close.
NDX and SPX weekly charts: The short term is about to face an inevitable contraction cycle, and the medium- to long-term upward trend is currently unaffected.
Market sentiment: AAII's bear-watching ratio has been relatively low for two consecutive weeks;
The Fear & Greed Index value fell below the nearly 4-month volatile cycle, and the next few weeks should see the effect of emotional responses on market behavior.
Core holdings:
$ProShares Short QQQ(PSQ.US$ Given that QQQ has continued to diverge for about 3.5 months and the market reaction on Thursday, after observation and risk calculation on Friday, it was decided to buy PSQ (QQQ's reverse ETF) to see how it will develop next week. When the QQQ daily chart closes above 10MA, it is the time point for the stop loss to exit, with a stop-loss ratio of about 1%.
Profit and loss of core holdings and their share:
Current cash share: 72.7%
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Cherry Cat : News report, 10/4 PSQ will combine five shares into one share. Will this affect the share price? Is it good or bad news for shareholders?
sTone83OP Cherry Cat: It's good for traders. Larger amounts mean less quantity required for the same value, which means transaction fees can be lower
Cherry Cat : Understood
, then what about the stock split?
sTone83OP Cherry Cat: Stock splits will cause the number of shares to increase, and trading positions of the same amount will increase transaction fees
Cherry Cat : Thank you!
icezzz : Why do u choose PSQ instead of sqqq ? Sqqq more volatile ?
sTone83OP icezzz: PSQ with 18% positions works far better than SQQQ for 6% positions in the face of fluctuations, as can be seen from a simple test
蛤蛤 : What do you think of natural gas?
sTone83OP 蛤蛤: A bit of an advantage
151083369 : Has PSQ been liquidated?
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