James Harris Simons talks about life, investing, trading.
1. If you do fundamental trading, then one day when you wake up, you may find yourself a genius. Your positions are always moving in your favor, you think you are very smart, and you will also see yourself making a lot of money overnight. The next day, however, all positions went against you, and you felt like a fool.
2. If you really rely on the model to trade, then do exactly what the model says, no matter how smart or stupid you think that model is; this later proved to be a very correct decision.
3. Some trading models are not random, but are traceable and have predictive effects. Those very small transactions, even those of only 100 shares, will have an impact on this huge market, and tens of thousands of such transactions happen every day. In fact, everyone has a black box; we call it a brain.
4. We focus on those small opportunities, which may be fleeting. When these opportunities arise, we make predictions and then trade accordingly. After the transaction, we will also track and evaluate the new market situation, adjust the forecast accordingly, and the investment portfolio will change accordingly. The so-called Elliott Wave Theory is worth nothing in the face of quantitative analysis of functional and non-functional models.
5. I'm not the smartest person in the world, and if I were to participate in the math Olympiad, I wouldn't have performed very well. But I like to think. Thinking about things in my heart, that is, thinking about certain things over and over again. It turned out to be a great approach. The one that suits me is the best. For example, I always take the decision to move and change positions in my own hands, that is, I only act when it is most beneficial to me. When you're overloaded, full, or even rashly borrow money, then it's tantamount to a desperate gamble; your fate will no longer be entirely in your hands. Gambling must be expensive, with surprises, but more of a sense of hopelessness.
6. Don't believe and be afraid of the exaggerated and alarmist rhetoric of the so-called “god of the sky.” A time span can solve all problems; ultimately, all problems are a matter of time. The overall trend and main trend of the US index and the vast majority of US stocks over the long course of history have been upward. Renaissance Technologies LLC (Renaissance Technology Co., Ltd.) increased its holdings of Tesla in December 2023. As to whether to increase its holdings in 2024, I don't know. I'm old, and specific matters are no longer within my scope of responsibility. I am only responsible for my charitable foundations and how to spend money on research investment in medicine, basic mathematics, applied mathematics, and other natural sciences. French physicist Alain Aspect, winner of the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics, American physicist John F. Clauser, and Austrian physicist Anton Zeilinger all highly praised Elon Musk's projects behind Tesla, which seem to fall within the categories of artificial intelligence and The Scope of Quantum Science and Technology. Of course The The scope of quantum science and technology is more advanced.
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成熟投资者：格局，概率，取舍。没有格局必然急功近利。不计概率会把运气当技术。不懂取舍，有所不为，最后必落入陷阱和圈套。
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