Iron Ore and A Shares Market Weekly Report and Global Capital Markets Weekly Report 20231127
Overall view
• Port and steel mill inventories remain low, and fundamentals remain in a tight balance. Although steel mill profits have rebounded, molten iron production is still under pressure, and immediate demand for raw materials is weakening.
• Currently, iron ore prices are overvalued, and the impact on fundamentals is weakening. Combined with increased market supervision, mineral prices will fluctuate weakly. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF(03047.HK$
On the supply side
• Global shipments were 32.235 million tons, an increase of 6.019 million tons, including Australia's 19.11 million tons, an increase of 2,559 million tons over the previous week, Brazil's 7515 million tons, an increase of 2.657 million tons, and non-mainstream shipments of 5.61 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons over the previous month.
• Total global shipments rebounded sharply month-on-month; among mainstream mines, only FMG shipments declined slightly. Currently, prices on Platts are high, leading non-mainstream regions to continue to have a high level of delivery; domestic mining production has rebounded.
On the demand side
• The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 80.12%, up 0.45% from last week, up 3.09% from last year; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.96%, down 0.05%, up 5.44% year on year; steel mill profitability was 39.39%, up 10.39% month on month, up 16.88% year on year; average daily iron production was 2,353,300 tons, down 0.14,000 tons, up 127,800 tons year on year.
• Iron ore remains high, and demand for iron ore remains high.
In terms of inventory
• The total imported iron ore stocks of 47 ports across the country were 12011.1 million tons, an increase of 942,000 tons over the previous month, and the average daily evacuation volume of 47 ports was 3.151,400 tons, an increase of 0.59 million tons over the previous month.
• The number of ports arriving at the port increased, but the port continued to have a high position, and the port only accumulated a small amount.
This week's A-share weekly report:
1. The popularity of market transactions has rebounded slightly, and the popularity of transactions in sectors such as media, automobiles, real estate, trade and retail, and communications is relatively high.
2. All A's 23/24 net profit forecasts continue to be lowered.
3. The activity of Liangrong has declined, but it is still at a high level during the year. Active biased fund positions have declined somewhat. Proxy variables show that the citizens as a whole continue to purchase funds on a net basis.
4. The overall buying consensus in the market declined last week, and the buying consensus in the automobile, textile, electronics, real estate, building materials and other sectors was relatively high.
5. The net flow of Liangrong continues, and ETFs as a whole continue to be net subscribed (among them, ETFs mainly held by individuals/institutions are net subscriptions/net redemptions respectively), but the average net outflow of allocations/trading markets to the north and the positions of actively biased funds have declined. This means that short-term individual and institutional behavior may diverge, and there may still be “cracks” in the market microstructure, and the market may still face trading disruptions. $BABA-SW(09988.HK$
Global Capital Markets Weekly Report:
Black 5 performance: According to data from Adobe Analytics, the retail scale of e-commerce in North America during the Black Five period was 9.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.5% over the previous year. Adobe expects e-commerce retail sales to reach 10-12 billion US dollars after Cyber Monday, reaching an all-time high. The main drivers are low price discounts and consumer resilience. Shopify, on the other hand, announced a 22% year-on-year increase in global Black Friday sales.
Category performance: According to Adobe data, the best-selling categories on Black Friday were electronics such as smartwatches and TVs, as well as toys and games. The household category is still weak.
Follow-up outlook: The performance of Black Five, which exceeded expectations, still shows the resilience of North American consumption. Judging from the three-quarter reports of major e-commerce and retail companies, macroeconomic resilience has led to revenue stabilization, and the increase in warehousing and logistics usage and declining inventories are all expected to drive profit margins. We continue to be optimistic about the subsequent performance of leading e-commerce platforms such as Amazon.
Amazon: The business cycle continues to improve. Judging from Black Friday's performance, Amazon as a whole still exceeds the industry average. On the one hand, the company relies on Prime's membership system to continue to gain market share. On the other hand, it continues to increase profits by relying on scale effects in the logistics sector. According to Reuters data, the number of company packages has now surpassed UPS and FedEx. Currently, the company's ev/ebitda is nearly 13x, a 30% discount compared to the historical center. In the future, as profit margins increase and revenue resilience, the stock price is expected to rise further. $Amazon(AMZN.US$
• Port and steel mill inventories remain low, and fundamentals remain in a tight balance. Although steel mill profits have rebounded, molten iron production is still under pressure, and immediate demand for raw materials is weakening.
• Currently, iron ore prices are overvalued, and the impact on fundamentals is weakening. Combined with increased market supervision, mineral prices will fluctuate weakly. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF(03047.HK$
On the supply side
• Global shipments were 32.235 million tons, an increase of 6.019 million tons, including Australia's 19.11 million tons, an increase of 2,559 million tons over the previous week, Brazil's 7515 million tons, an increase of 2.657 million tons, and non-mainstream shipments of 5.61 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons over the previous month.
• Total global shipments rebounded sharply month-on-month; among mainstream mines, only FMG shipments declined slightly. Currently, prices on Platts are high, leading non-mainstream regions to continue to have a high level of delivery; domestic mining production has rebounded.
On the demand side
• The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 80.12%, up 0.45% from last week, up 3.09% from last year; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.96%, down 0.05%, up 5.44% year on year; steel mill profitability was 39.39%, up 10.39% month on month, up 16.88% year on year; average daily iron production was 2,353,300 tons, down 0.14,000 tons, up 127,800 tons year on year.
• Iron ore remains high, and demand for iron ore remains high.
In terms of inventory
• The total imported iron ore stocks of 47 ports across the country were 12011.1 million tons, an increase of 942,000 tons over the previous month, and the average daily evacuation volume of 47 ports was 3.151,400 tons, an increase of 0.59 million tons over the previous month.
• The number of ports arriving at the port increased, but the port continued to have a high position, and the port only accumulated a small amount.
This week's A-share weekly report:
1. The popularity of market transactions has rebounded slightly, and the popularity of transactions in sectors such as media, automobiles, real estate, trade and retail, and communications is relatively high.
2. All A's 23/24 net profit forecasts continue to be lowered.
3. The activity of Liangrong has declined, but it is still at a high level during the year. Active biased fund positions have declined somewhat. Proxy variables show that the citizens as a whole continue to purchase funds on a net basis.
4. The overall buying consensus in the market declined last week, and the buying consensus in the automobile, textile, electronics, real estate, building materials and other sectors was relatively high.
5. The net flow of Liangrong continues, and ETFs as a whole continue to be net subscribed (among them, ETFs mainly held by individuals/institutions are net subscriptions/net redemptions respectively), but the average net outflow of allocations/trading markets to the north and the positions of actively biased funds have declined. This means that short-term individual and institutional behavior may diverge, and there may still be “cracks” in the market microstructure, and the market may still face trading disruptions. $BABA-SW(09988.HK$
Global Capital Markets Weekly Report:
Black 5 performance: According to data from Adobe Analytics, the retail scale of e-commerce in North America during the Black Five period was 9.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.5% over the previous year. Adobe expects e-commerce retail sales to reach 10-12 billion US dollars after Cyber Monday, reaching an all-time high. The main drivers are low price discounts and consumer resilience. Shopify, on the other hand, announced a 22% year-on-year increase in global Black Friday sales.
Category performance: According to Adobe data, the best-selling categories on Black Friday were electronics such as smartwatches and TVs, as well as toys and games. The household category is still weak.
Follow-up outlook: The performance of Black Five, which exceeded expectations, still shows the resilience of North American consumption. Judging from the three-quarter reports of major e-commerce and retail companies, macroeconomic resilience has led to revenue stabilization, and the increase in warehousing and logistics usage and declining inventories are all expected to drive profit margins. We continue to be optimistic about the subsequent performance of leading e-commerce platforms such as Amazon.
Amazon: The business cycle continues to improve. Judging from Black Friday's performance, Amazon as a whole still exceeds the industry average. On the one hand, the company relies on Prime's membership system to continue to gain market share. On the other hand, it continues to increase profits by relying on scale effects in the logistics sector. According to Reuters data, the number of company packages has now surpassed UPS and FedEx. Currently, the company's ev/ebitda is nearly 13x, a 30% discount compared to the historical center. In the future, as profit margins increase and revenue resilience, the stock price is expected to rise further. $Amazon(AMZN.US$
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