Iron Ore and A-share Market Weekly Report and Global Capital Market Weekly Report 20231227
Overall view
• Currently, the fundamentals of ore are disturbed by weather factors, causing changes in the inventory structure, but overall domestic imported ore stocks have continued to increase under the combined influence of high supply levels and seasonal production cuts by steel companies.
• Fundamentals have weakened slightly, but considering the improved weather conditions, steel companies' demand for ore replenishment is also strongly supported by mineral prices. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF(03047.HK$
On the supply side
• Global shipments of 32.958 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons, of which Australia shipped 19.04 million tons, down 1.101 million tons from the previous week, Brazil shipped 7.87 million tons, an increase of 526,000 tons over the previous week, and 6.084 million tons from non-mainstream shipments, an increase of 634,000 tons over the previous week.
• Global shipments continue to be high. Western Australian wind power enhances non-hurricane factors. Temporarily, it is observed that its impact on shipments is limited, and shipments from non-mainstream mines continue to rise. In the later stages of the outlook, although there will still be weather disturbances in Western Australia and the southern and eastern mining areas of Brazil over the next week, the impact is expected to be limited.
Demand side
• The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 77.71%, down 0.6% from the previous year; the utilization rate of blast furnace iron production capacity was 84.75%, down 0.08% from the previous year, up 2.36% year on year; the profit rate of steel mills was 33.77%, down 1.73% from the previous year, up 12.12% year on year; the average daily iron and water production rate was 2.266,400 tons, down 0.22 million tons year on month, up 46,900 tons year on year.
• At present, industrial policies and industry profits have not significantly disrupted corporate production. Steel companies continue to cut production in the off-season. It is expected that iron and water output will continue to decline in the next week, so the level of demand for ore will continue to decline marginally, but at the same time, the absolute level of demand remains at a high level.
In terms of inventory
• The total stocks of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country were 1188.676 million tons, an increase of 3.015,700 tons over the previous month. The average daily drain volume of 45 ports was 2,549,500 tons, a decrease of 513,900 tons.
This week's A-share weekly report:
1. The popularity of market transactions continues to decline, and the popularity of transactions in the media, consumer services and other sectors is relatively high.
2. All A's 23/24 net profit forecasts continue to be lowered.
3. The activity of the two finance companies declined again. Overall, it was at a low level during the year. Active bias fund positions declined somewhat. Proxy variables showed that overall, Jimin continued to purchase funds on a net basis.
4. The overall buying consensus in the market declined markedly last week, and differences in various sectors were obvious.
5. With the market turbulence and adjustment last week, the North China Trading Market and ETF have once again become marginal incremental capital of the market. Corresponsively, investors represented by the two integrations and mainly driven by profit effects have begun to shift to clear net sales. Market sentiment shows a “one-click clearance” trend. Whether it will show bottom-line characteristics in the future remains to be seen. Currently, the market is still under heavy policy pressure (subsequent or continuing Internet policy) and confidence is weak. $PDD Holdings(PDD.US$ $TENCENT(00700.HK$
Global Capital Markets Weekly Report:
Global inflation continues to fall sharply. On average for many economies that experienced a sharp rise in prices after the COVID-19 pandemic (excluding Japan's G10 and emerging market countries that raised interest rates early), we estimate that core inflation grew at an annualized month-on-month rate of 2.2% over the past three months, compared to 1.3% in November. As a result, we are now seeing several major developed market central banks cutting interest rates earlier and more aggressively.
• Currently, the fundamentals of ore are disturbed by weather factors, causing changes in the inventory structure, but overall domestic imported ore stocks have continued to increase under the combined influence of high supply levels and seasonal production cuts by steel companies.
• Fundamentals have weakened slightly, but considering the improved weather conditions, steel companies' demand for ore replenishment is also strongly supported by mineral prices. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF(03047.HK$
On the supply side
• Global shipments of 32.958 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons, of which Australia shipped 19.04 million tons, down 1.101 million tons from the previous week, Brazil shipped 7.87 million tons, an increase of 526,000 tons over the previous week, and 6.084 million tons from non-mainstream shipments, an increase of 634,000 tons over the previous week.
• Global shipments continue to be high. Western Australian wind power enhances non-hurricane factors. Temporarily, it is observed that its impact on shipments is limited, and shipments from non-mainstream mines continue to rise. In the later stages of the outlook, although there will still be weather disturbances in Western Australia and the southern and eastern mining areas of Brazil over the next week, the impact is expected to be limited.
Demand side
• The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 77.71%, down 0.6% from the previous year; the utilization rate of blast furnace iron production capacity was 84.75%, down 0.08% from the previous year, up 2.36% year on year; the profit rate of steel mills was 33.77%, down 1.73% from the previous year, up 12.12% year on year; the average daily iron and water production rate was 2.266,400 tons, down 0.22 million tons year on month, up 46,900 tons year on year.
• At present, industrial policies and industry profits have not significantly disrupted corporate production. Steel companies continue to cut production in the off-season. It is expected that iron and water output will continue to decline in the next week, so the level of demand for ore will continue to decline marginally, but at the same time, the absolute level of demand remains at a high level.
In terms of inventory
• The total stocks of imported iron ore in 45 ports across the country were 1188.676 million tons, an increase of 3.015,700 tons over the previous month. The average daily drain volume of 45 ports was 2,549,500 tons, a decrease of 513,900 tons.
This week's A-share weekly report:
1. The popularity of market transactions continues to decline, and the popularity of transactions in the media, consumer services and other sectors is relatively high.
2. All A's 23/24 net profit forecasts continue to be lowered.
3. The activity of the two finance companies declined again. Overall, it was at a low level during the year. Active bias fund positions declined somewhat. Proxy variables showed that overall, Jimin continued to purchase funds on a net basis.
4. The overall buying consensus in the market declined markedly last week, and differences in various sectors were obvious.
5. With the market turbulence and adjustment last week, the North China Trading Market and ETF have once again become marginal incremental capital of the market. Corresponsively, investors represented by the two integrations and mainly driven by profit effects have begun to shift to clear net sales. Market sentiment shows a “one-click clearance” trend. Whether it will show bottom-line characteristics in the future remains to be seen. Currently, the market is still under heavy policy pressure (subsequent or continuing Internet policy) and confidence is weak. $PDD Holdings(PDD.US$ $TENCENT(00700.HK$
Global Capital Markets Weekly Report:
Global inflation continues to fall sharply. On average for many economies that experienced a sharp rise in prices after the COVID-19 pandemic (excluding Japan's G10 and emerging market countries that raised interest rates early), we estimate that core inflation grew at an annualized month-on-month rate of 2.2% over the past three months, compared to 1.3% in November. As a result, we are now seeing several major developed market central banks cutting interest rates earlier and more aggressively.
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3047 is a team specializing in the research of commodities and smart beta. We like to exchange investment strategies.
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