Iron Ore and A Shares Market Weekly Report and Global Capital Market Weekly Report
Overall
• Iron and water increased month-on-month, and the profit margin of steel mills declined slightly. Low maintenance volume suggests that iron water will remain high. There was a slight increase in shugang, spot transactions rebounded, and forward transactions rebounded. Be wary of steel mills making up inventory due to the 11th holiday.
• Port inventories have been reduced slightly. Subsequently, as iron and water peaked and floating goods arrived at the port one after another, the port was still under pressure to accumulate storage. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF(03047.HK$
On the supply side
• Last week, total global iron ore shipments were 33.61 million tons, up 720,000 tons weekly. Australian and non-mainstream shipments both rebounded from week to week; total inbound volume from port 45 was 1.79 million tons, down 20.4% from the previous week.
• Total global shipments have rebounded; mainstream mine shipments have fluctuated normally. Platts prices are high, leading to an increase in shipments from non-mainstream regions; domestic mining rebounded month-on-month, and high seas drifted low to Hong Kong, leading to low port inventories.
Demand side
• The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 84.39%, up 0.30 percentage points from last week, up 2.40 percentage points from last year; blast furnace iron production capacity utilization rate was 92.76%, up 0.49 percentage points from month to month, up 5.21 percentage points year on year; steel mill profit rate was 45.02%, down 0.43 percentage points from month on month, down 7.36 percentage points year on year; average daily iron and water production was 2.482,400 tons, up 132,000 tons year on year.
• Iron and water production remained high, and steel mill profits declined; Hong Kong increased slightly, spot transactions rebounded, and forward transactions rebounded.
In terms of inventory
• Imported iron ore stocks in 45 ports across the country were 118.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.59 million tons over the previous month. There was a slight increase in port evacuation, a decline in port arrivals, and a small amount of port inventory was removed from storage. Subsequently, as iron and water reached its peak and seafloor goods arrived at the port one after another, the port was still under pressure to accumulate storage.
This week's A-share weekly report:
1. The popularity of market transactions has declined again, and the popularity of transactions in real estate and other sectors is relatively high.
2. All A's 23/24 net profit forecasts continue to be lowered.
3. The activity of the two finance companies declined somewhat and was still at a low level during the year. Active equity fund positions rebounded again. Proxy variables showed that overall, Jimin continued to purchase funds on a net basis.
4. The overall buying consensus in the market continued to pick up last week but was still low, and the purchasing consensus in the home appliance sector was relatively high.
5. The northbound allocation ended the previous record continuous net outflow situation, and the net outflow rate of the northbound allocation/trading market all slowed markedly, and the number of industries choosing net purchases continued to pick up. This means that in terms of stages, there is further less disturbance in the market, and the transaction structure continues to improve. $EVERGRANDE(03333.HK$ $Midea Group Co., Ltd(000333.SZ$
Global Capital Markets Weekly Report:
As we walked out of office last week, the key story was the continued normalization of the US labor market: job vacancies are declining, resignation rates are falling, and wage growth is stabilizing. However, the number of non-farm payrolls is still far above break-even, and the labor force participation rate is improving. Overall, this is a beautiful story for the Federal Reserve and the bulls. So, that's great news.
By the end of the week, the story went back to the tricky state of early August: in addition to falling local oil prices, US interest rates also rebounded to high levels, which instinctively affected the stock market; the volatility of this correlation determined a more complex trading environment. So this is bad news.
Arguably, this is both good news and bad news: there is no need to set too much risk premium now (S&P's price-earnings ratio is at the 87th percentile, implied volatility has just broken out of its low point, and credit spreads are close to tightening).
Finally, the tactical risk/reward isn't entirely obvious to me — Standard & Poor's is hovering near the midpoint of the past two month range, and I doubt this will continue for a month or so.
• Iron and water increased month-on-month, and the profit margin of steel mills declined slightly. Low maintenance volume suggests that iron water will remain high. There was a slight increase in shugang, spot transactions rebounded, and forward transactions rebounded. Be wary of steel mills making up inventory due to the 11th holiday.
• Port inventories have been reduced slightly. Subsequently, as iron and water peaked and floating goods arrived at the port one after another, the port was still under pressure to accumulate storage. $SSIF DCE Iron Ore Futures Index ETF(03047.HK$
On the supply side
• Last week, total global iron ore shipments were 33.61 million tons, up 720,000 tons weekly. Australian and non-mainstream shipments both rebounded from week to week; total inbound volume from port 45 was 1.79 million tons, down 20.4% from the previous week.
• Total global shipments have rebounded; mainstream mine shipments have fluctuated normally. Platts prices are high, leading to an increase in shipments from non-mainstream regions; domestic mining rebounded month-on-month, and high seas drifted low to Hong Kong, leading to low port inventories.
Demand side
• The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 84.39%, up 0.30 percentage points from last week, up 2.40 percentage points from last year; blast furnace iron production capacity utilization rate was 92.76%, up 0.49 percentage points from month to month, up 5.21 percentage points year on year; steel mill profit rate was 45.02%, down 0.43 percentage points from month on month, down 7.36 percentage points year on year; average daily iron and water production was 2.482,400 tons, up 132,000 tons year on year.
• Iron and water production remained high, and steel mill profits declined; Hong Kong increased slightly, spot transactions rebounded, and forward transactions rebounded.
In terms of inventory
• Imported iron ore stocks in 45 ports across the country were 118.68 million tons, a decrease of 2.59 million tons over the previous month. There was a slight increase in port evacuation, a decline in port arrivals, and a small amount of port inventory was removed from storage. Subsequently, as iron and water reached its peak and seafloor goods arrived at the port one after another, the port was still under pressure to accumulate storage.
This week's A-share weekly report:
1. The popularity of market transactions has declined again, and the popularity of transactions in real estate and other sectors is relatively high.
2. All A's 23/24 net profit forecasts continue to be lowered.
3. The activity of the two finance companies declined somewhat and was still at a low level during the year. Active equity fund positions rebounded again. Proxy variables showed that overall, Jimin continued to purchase funds on a net basis.
4. The overall buying consensus in the market continued to pick up last week but was still low, and the purchasing consensus in the home appliance sector was relatively high.
5. The northbound allocation ended the previous record continuous net outflow situation, and the net outflow rate of the northbound allocation/trading market all slowed markedly, and the number of industries choosing net purchases continued to pick up. This means that in terms of stages, there is further less disturbance in the market, and the transaction structure continues to improve. $EVERGRANDE(03333.HK$ $Midea Group Co., Ltd(000333.SZ$
Global Capital Markets Weekly Report:
As we walked out of office last week, the key story was the continued normalization of the US labor market: job vacancies are declining, resignation rates are falling, and wage growth is stabilizing. However, the number of non-farm payrolls is still far above break-even, and the labor force participation rate is improving. Overall, this is a beautiful story for the Federal Reserve and the bulls. So, that's great news.
By the end of the week, the story went back to the tricky state of early August: in addition to falling local oil prices, US interest rates also rebounded to high levels, which instinctively affected the stock market; the volatility of this correlation determined a more complex trading environment. So this is bad news.
Arguably, this is both good news and bad news: there is no need to set too much risk premium now (S&P's price-earnings ratio is at the 87th percentile, implied volatility has just broken out of its low point, and credit spreads are close to tightening).
Finally, the tactical risk/reward isn't entirely obvious to me — Standard & Poor's is hovering near the midpoint of the past two month range, and I doubt this will continue for a month or so.
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3047 is a team specializing in the research of commodities and smart beta. We like to exchange investment strategies.
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