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HTSC Trims Alibaba TP to US$117.9; Sees Investment in New Growth Cycle

Huatai Securities (HTSC) views Alibaba as entering a new growth cycle with adjustments to its core business and management team nearing completion.

Alibaba's domestic e-commerce shows signs of healthy growth, supported by price strength and enhanced user experience, while international e-commerce and Cainiao $Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Limited(810537.HK)$ contribute to overall revenue growth.

HTSC expects revenue growth to accelerate under younger, more strategically efficient management, leading to a valuation correction.

Non-GAAP net profit forecast adjusted for FY2024-26 to RMB168.8 billion/169.1 billion/186 billion respectively, with a Buy rating and TP for U.S. shares lowered to US$117.9.

Alibaba repurchased US$4.8 billion of shares in the last quarter and US$12.5 billion in FY2024, demonstrating commitment to shareholder reward.

Vigorous share repurchase efforts led to a reduction of 1.06 billion shares in FY2024, contributing to a margin of safety in valuation.

Share buybacks and dividends expected to improve investor sentiment as fundamentals marginally improve.
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