[Earnings Preview] Will AMD and AI chip sales surprise the market?

moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Apr 28 08:38

[Earnings Preview] Will AMD and AI chip sales surprise the market?

● $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US)$ Is24Q1 (fiscal year ending January-March) financial results announced at 06:00 on 05/01 Japan timeI plan to do it.
● 2024Q1 earnings forecast,Sales increased 1.85% year over year to $5.452 billion、EPS converted from deficit to surplus in the same period last year at $0.17That's the forecast.
●79.41% of analysts are bullishratings,The average target stock price is $205.07。
●AI chip salesis attracting attention from the market.

Earnings forecast for 2024Q1, sales are expected to increase 1.85% from the same period last year to 5.452 billion dollars, and EPS is expected to increase 2498.00% from the same period last year to $0.26

According to Moomoo, the market is forecasting earnings for 24Q1, sales of 5.452 billion dollars, up 1.85% from the same period last year, and EPS of 0.17 dollars converted from deficit in the same period last year to surplus.

79.41% of analysts are bullish, with an average target share price of $205.07
According to Moomoo, the average target stock price presented by analysts is $205.07. Of the 34 analysts, 79.41% are bullish and 20.59% recommend neutrality. There are no analysts who recommend being bearish.

AI chip sales are paying attention to the market
The data center division has become the company's largest business division. Products in the same business include EPYC (CPU), INSTINCT MI300X (GPU), INSTINCT MI300A (APU), etc. What the market is paying the most attention to is revenue from AI GPUs.

At the financial results briefing for the previous quarter held on 1/30, AMD predicted 2024 sales of GPUs for AI to exceed 3.5 billion dollars, but this fell short of expectations. Wall Street had raised the forecast to around $6 billion. In the current financial results, updates to relevant information are attracting attention from the market.

On 2023/12/6, AMD announced Instinct MI300 accelerators and processors for data centers, for high-performance computing and AI applications $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ It competed with the H100 series devices. Meanwhile, Nvidia announced the latest AI processor Blackwell series on 3/18 of this year. The Blackwell series is scheduled to be released in the latter half of 2024, and Nvidia plans to make it affordable to promote adoption. The series is more efficient while achieving significant performance improvements. This move is seen as a potential risk for AMD.

Analysts' point of view
Mizuho desk analyst Jordan Klein sees that few investors will actively buy due to concerns that “they may grab a falling knife” ahead of financial results. There are concerns that AMD will provide unclear information on the AI product “MI300,” or that it will not raise this year's earnings forecast of at least 3.5 billion dollars. According to Klein,The MI300 outlook supports stock pricesIt is extremely important in order to attract potential buyers.

TD Cowen analyst Matthew Ramsey believes investors are largely following AMD's approach. The sentiment (up and down) of AMD this season has changed more drastically than fundamentals, but he commented, “I am still amazed by the immediate sentiment crowd mentality.” Mr. Ramsey said,”Short-term sentiment about MI300 expectations is highly variable“That's an overestimate, and I think AMD will continue to be a powerful replacement for Nvidia.

HSBC analyst Frank Lee predicts that Nvidia will not maintain a 100% share in the AI GPU market. According to Lee's prediction,AMD will occupy 10% of the market by 2025, and AI GPU sales could reach $12.3 billionThere is. “Despite market concerns that Nvidia will take hegemony on the GB200 platform in 2025, we don't think the MI300 will compete directly with the GB200,” he said.The MI350/M375/MI40 will be a product that directly competes with Nvidia's GB200He anticipates it.

Source: Bloomberg, Investor's Business Daily, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, Statista
— MooMoo News Zeber
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts

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