Bitcoin eyes $100k by year-end? Analysts bullish despite current slump
(Kitco News) – Little has changed in the overall picture of the cryptocurrency market overnight as Bitcoin (BTC) continues to see sideways price action above $63,000 while the majority of altcoins recorded minor losses.
Most analysts agree that the next few weeks to months could see a similar story, with most tokens experiencing volatile consolidation in typical post-halving fashion as the market adjusts to the reduction in new Bitcoin supply.
“What we are seeing is quite typical in the history of Bitcoin prices, a series of ups and downs with an ever higher floor price over time,” said Igor Telyatnikov, co-founder and CEO of AlphaPoint, in a note to Kitco Crypto. “Presently, we are seeing a pullback from Bitcoin now that the halving is complete.”
“In addition to the halving, the recent Spot ETFs have been a very strong upward driver of Bitcoin's pricing,” he added. “While part of the halving is priced in, as miners continue to unload less coins into the market due to lower block rewards, that removal of downward sell pressure will continue enabling an increase in price.”
Telyatnikov said that while the price of Bitcoin could continue to slide lower, “Our outlook for 2024 remains positive, with a strong possibility of reaching another all-time high by year-end.”
“While we can’t predict the exact timing for reversal, we fully expect to see new all-time highs in 2024 and likely breaking 100k before the year is out,” he said. “We also expect the price of BTC to reach 210k by mid-2025 based on historic price movements post-Bitcoin halving cycles. The core principle of Bitcoin has not changed – it is a store of value with a supply cap and is immutable. That cannot be said for 180 fiat currencies worldwide.”
According to Matteo Greco, Research Analyst at Fineqia International, Bitcoin managed to reverse the negative price trend it was stuck in early last week to close at approximately $64,000.
Most analysts agree that the next few weeks to months could see a similar story, with most tokens experiencing volatile consolidation in typical post-halving fashion as the market adjusts to the reduction in new Bitcoin supply.
“What we are seeing is quite typical in the history of Bitcoin prices, a series of ups and downs with an ever higher floor price over time,” said Igor Telyatnikov, co-founder and CEO of AlphaPoint, in a note to Kitco Crypto. “Presently, we are seeing a pullback from Bitcoin now that the halving is complete.”
“In addition to the halving, the recent Spot ETFs have been a very strong upward driver of Bitcoin's pricing,” he added. “While part of the halving is priced in, as miners continue to unload less coins into the market due to lower block rewards, that removal of downward sell pressure will continue enabling an increase in price.”
Telyatnikov said that while the price of Bitcoin could continue to slide lower, “Our outlook for 2024 remains positive, with a strong possibility of reaching another all-time high by year-end.”
“While we can’t predict the exact timing for reversal, we fully expect to see new all-time highs in 2024 and likely breaking 100k before the year is out,” he said. “We also expect the price of BTC to reach 210k by mid-2025 based on historic price movements post-Bitcoin halving cycles. The core principle of Bitcoin has not changed – it is a store of value with a supply cap and is immutable. That cannot be said for 180 fiat currencies worldwide.”
According to Matteo Greco, Research Analyst at Fineqia International, Bitcoin managed to reverse the negative price trend it was stuck in early last week to close at approximately $64,000.
The downtrend has primarily been attributed to outflows from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which recorded four consecutive weeks of outflows.
“However, there were two consecutive days of inflows observed between Friday of last week and Monday of this week, marking the first positive inflows after seven consecutive days of net outflows,” Greco said. “It's worth noting that on Friday of last week, the Grayscale ETF (GBTC) saw its first day of net inflow following the conversion of its product from a trust to an ETF.”
Data provided by Farside shows that GBTC also saw minor inflows of $3.9 million on Monday.
“Trading volume for BTC ETFs remained relatively steady during the week, with cumulative trading volume since inception reaching $246.6 billion, recording $10.9 billion during the week alone,” Greco noted. “This marks a 12.3% increase from the $9.7 billion recorded the previous week but remains below the average trading volume of $3.1 billion since inception. These figures suggest that the period of outflows may have peaked, with trading volumes showing signs of increase and outflows potentially stabilizing.”
On the spot Ether (ETH) ETF front, the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to make a final decision on several applications in May, and the consensus is that the applications will be denied.
“Following the recent delay of the Invesco and Galaxy filing on May 6th, the SEC will have to decide on the VanEck and Ark 21Shares filings, with deadlines on May 23rd and 24th, respectively,” he said. “This decision could trigger a cascade of approvals or rejections, as the SEC is expected to apply the same criteria to all seven ETH Spot ETF applications.”
Greco noted that “Concerns over the liquidity of ETH's spot and futures markets, along with its past classification as a security by the SEC, contribute to the skepticism surrounding swift approval. In the event of rejection, issuers would need to resubmit filings, restarting the approval process, potentially leading to approval in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 under the best-case scenario.”
Zooming out, he said investors are also focused on rising inflation and what that means for interest rates as the number of expected rate cuts in 2024 declines with every passing Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
“On the macroeconomic front, inflation remains higher than expected, providing leeway for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary policy than initially anticipated for 2024,” Greco said. “Market participants were expecting a 75/100bps cut in interest rates during 2024, but the FED has kept interest rates stable in response to the ongoing inflation. Current expectations are for a 25/50bps cut during Q4 2024, with the first 25bps cut potentially occurring in October/November 2024 if inflation data don’t worsen in the coming months.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $63,930, an increase of 1.12% on the 24-hour chart.
“However, there were two consecutive days of inflows observed between Friday of last week and Monday of this week, marking the first positive inflows after seven consecutive days of net outflows,” Greco said. “It's worth noting that on Friday of last week, the Grayscale ETF (GBTC) saw its first day of net inflow following the conversion of its product from a trust to an ETF.”
Data provided by Farside shows that GBTC also saw minor inflows of $3.9 million on Monday.
“Trading volume for BTC ETFs remained relatively steady during the week, with cumulative trading volume since inception reaching $246.6 billion, recording $10.9 billion during the week alone,” Greco noted. “This marks a 12.3% increase from the $9.7 billion recorded the previous week but remains below the average trading volume of $3.1 billion since inception. These figures suggest that the period of outflows may have peaked, with trading volumes showing signs of increase and outflows potentially stabilizing.”
On the spot Ether (ETH) ETF front, the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to make a final decision on several applications in May, and the consensus is that the applications will be denied.
“Following the recent delay of the Invesco and Galaxy filing on May 6th, the SEC will have to decide on the VanEck and Ark 21Shares filings, with deadlines on May 23rd and 24th, respectively,” he said. “This decision could trigger a cascade of approvals or rejections, as the SEC is expected to apply the same criteria to all seven ETH Spot ETF applications.”
Greco noted that “Concerns over the liquidity of ETH's spot and futures markets, along with its past classification as a security by the SEC, contribute to the skepticism surrounding swift approval. In the event of rejection, issuers would need to resubmit filings, restarting the approval process, potentially leading to approval in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 under the best-case scenario.”
Zooming out, he said investors are also focused on rising inflation and what that means for interest rates as the number of expected rate cuts in 2024 declines with every passing Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
“On the macroeconomic front, inflation remains higher than expected, providing leeway for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tighter monetary policy than initially anticipated for 2024,” Greco said. “Market participants were expecting a 75/100bps cut in interest rates during 2024, but the FED has kept interest rates stable in response to the ongoing inflation. Current expectations are for a 25/50bps cut during Q4 2024, with the first 25bps cut potentially occurring in October/November 2024 if inflation data don’t worsen in the coming months.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $63,930, an increase of 1.12% on the 24-hour chart.
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EZ_money : nope I'm calling
kingmat Bush : yes learn from the past 32000$ circle up and down if you think 100 k you stupid hit 74k that's it next four years Yes game for Rich....my advice to everyone sell put your money in gold USA in big shit printing money without coverage.....
Anthony F : Fairly good chances BTC will go to 100k plus
AlinaMlakamOP kingmat Bush: Let's wait and see!
Svetlana Polishuk : Yep and it should hit new all-time-highs all next year too $130,000 - $140,000
AlinaMlakamOP Svetlana Polishuk: There is no doubt that cryptocurrency is the future development trend.