BABA's Long-term Investment Strategy Amidst Revenue Forecast Adjustments

CMSI's research report forecasts BABA's 4FQ24 revenue to grow by 6.2% YoY to RMB221 billion, lower than previous estimates due to slower growth in Taobao Tmall Group's revenue.

Despite the revenue adjustment, CMSI maintains $BABA-SW(09988.HK)$ 's FY2025 revenue growth forecast at 10.3% YoY.

Adjusted EBITA profit is expected to increase by 3% YoY, compared to the previous estimate of 5%.

Target prices for Alibaba's H-shares have been revised down to US$118/ $116 from US$120/ $117 due to lower earnings forecasts, exchange rate fluctuations, and changes in investment value.

BABA has reduced outstanding shares by 3.3% through share buybacks in 2023 and plans to continue this strategy, with a repurchase amount of approximately US$12 billion per year.

CMSI maintains an Overweight rating on BABA, highlighting its anticipation for recovery.