BABA's 4QFY24 Revenue Expected to Rise 5% YoY, CICC Predicts

CICC predicts Alibaba Group's 4QFY24 revenue to increase by 5% YoY to RMB219.2 billion, in line with market expectations.

Adjusted EBITA forecasted to decline 4% YoY to RMB24.3 billion, while non-GAAP net profit estimated at RMB28.1 billion.

YoY decreases expected in EBITAs for Taobao Tmall Group and Alibaba overall due to increased investments in overseas ventures and Cainiao $Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Limited(810537.HK)$ .

Alibaba's domestic retail GMV projected to rise 6% YoY in 4QFY24, driven by market share goals and strong online consumption trends.

Customer management revenue (CMR) forecasted to grow by 3.5% YoY in the last quarter, with stabilizing monetization rates anticipated.

Revised down revenue projections for FY25 and FY26 by 2% each due to weaker-than-expected non-core business performance.

Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY25 and FY26 lowered by 8% and 13% respectively, mainly due to increased investments and business losses.

CICC maintains target prices of US$112 for US shares $Alibaba(BABA.US)$ and HK$109 for H-shares $BABA-SW(09988.HK)$ , with an Outperform rating for both.