April 2024 Bitcoin halving differs significantly from past ones
The historical post-halving pattern for Bitcoin typically involves a slight drop followed by sideways movement, with a climb occurring about a year after the halving event.
This year's Bitcoin halving differs significantly from past ones due to the introduction of the Spot Bitcoin ETF. This ETF has triggered the initial price surge much earlier than usual, even before the halving itself. The initial surge had already done. Consequently, we saw Bitcoin's price surged to 74k from 25k and dropped to around 60k+ just two days ago.
Looking ahead, if the Federal Reserve not only pauses but also raises interest rates due to persistent inflation, we could see an accelerated decline in Bitcoin's price. Current economic indicators do not suggest a rate cut from the Fed, especially with high inflation, low unemployment, and elevated oil prices.
Bitcoin might potentially drop to 55k within the next 10 months, and in the scenario of a Fed rate hike, it could even plummet to 36k. We might have to wait for second wave before it surged further after profit takings done with.
Longer term Bitcoin price will naturally go up as long as the faith in it as digital gold stays (actually better than slow gold).
#bitcoin #btc #halving #bitcoin_etf #markettiming #precisiontrading
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Blakexxiii : you have no God damn idea what you're talking about. stop saying smart words and random figures to make it sound like you're in the know when you clearly aren't.
protraderxOP : Yesterday (May 1, 2024 est), Bitcoin briefly dipped below 57k, nearing my predicted 55k level on 2024 Apr 21. While it has since risen above 57k, the lack of a significant intraday reversal suggests a wavering commitment from dip buyers. It's likely to reach my forecasted 55k sooner than anticipated. There's palpable nervousness in both equities and the crypto market, understandable given the bullish trend fueled by hopes of a rate cut.
The economy's slowdown could once again make the market a leading indicator. Whether a recession will occur in 2024/2025 remains uncertain.
My layman observation: The Federal Reserve (FED) is grappling with balancing economic management against combating high inflation, worsened by surging oil prices triggered in part by the conflict in Ukraine. The staggering fiscal stimulus injected during the Covid-19 pandemic (2020-2022) is now posing challenges for the FED, as the money remains in circulation, benefiting retail investors and contributing to the stock market rally and high inflation. However, as retail investors' stimulus funds dwindle and businesses affected by high inflation contribute to rising unemployment, the market will likely feel the impact first.
#btc #bitcoin #markettiming #fed