April 15 Market Analysis

In Friday's trading, the three major US stock indexes all closed down more than 1%. Among them, the Dow recorded its biggest weekly decline since the Bank of Silicon Valley went out of business, while the S&P 500 experienced its worst week in nearly five months. Among technology stocks, Apple rose against the market, with weekly gains of more than 4%, while the chip stock index plummeted by more than 3%, and Intel and AMD declined by more than 5% and 4%, respectively. Furthermore, J.P. Morgan Chase plummeted 6.5% after the earnings report was released, the biggest one-day decline in nearly four years.

Although the Pan-European stock index rebounded on Friday, it still closed down for two consecutive weeks, while the oil and gas sector bucked the trend and rose 2.5% to a new high since 2008. In the bond market, due to the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds fell 10 basis points from a nearly five-month high. Meanwhile, the dollar index hit a new five-month high, while the yen hit a new low since 1990 for three consecutive days.

The crude oil market rebounded against the backdrop of a tense situation in the Middle East, although it continued to decline throughout the week. U.S. crude oil prices once surged more than 3% in the intraday period, hitting a new high in nearly half a year, but then fell back. Gold fell sharply after successive intraday record highs. At one point, it fell 4% from its high level. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin also experienced a wave of sharp fluctuations. At one point, it plummeted by more than $6,000 and fell below the $66,000 mark.

The Chinese market was also under pressure during the US stock period. The China Securities Index plummeted 4.6%. Among them, Xiaopeng Motor and NIO Auto plummeted by nearly 10% and 8%, respectively. The offshore renminbi also fell sharply in the intraday period, approaching the 7.27 mark. In the A-share market, although the overall market fluctuated and adjusted, cyclical stocks such as gold performed strongly. The Hang Seng Index fell by more than 2%, while 10-year treasury bond futures reached a record high.

On the geopolitical side, Iran said that as long as Israel does not fight back, the conflict with Israel will not escalate further. Israel has lowered the national alert level, and there are currently no reports of mass casualties or losses. There are reports that the US helped Israel to destroy almost all drones and missiles. This shows that although the situation is still uncertain, it seems that the conflict will not worsen further at present, and excessive market panic may not be necessary.

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