2024 First Quarter Summary and Reflections ๐
Q1 Monthly Earnings Breakdown ๐
Overall yield curve ๐
First quarter deal win rate and top 5 winners ๐
SMCI is a two-trade transaction. The main position size during the cycling phase is 12-13%, and there are currently no positions.
NVDA is a single transaction. The size of positions in the main cycling phase is 11-12%, and there are currently no positions.
KOLD is a single transaction. The position size during the main cycling phase is about 3%, and there are currently no positions.
CVNA is a single transaction. The main cycling stage position is about 3%, and currently holds the remaining 1/3 of the position.
META is a single transaction. The main cycling stage positions: 8-9%, currently holding 3/4 of the remaining positions.
*It is worth noting that KOLD and CVNA both received large returns with small positions of about 3%, showing the impact of huge psychological advantages on trading. Similar returns on low-risk transactions are of profound significance to account growth โค๏ธ
Despite more or less making some trading mistakes in the first quarter, the account still had a good positive growth due to the trading system and psychological aspects and the advantage of avoiding noise.
System advantages:
Probability of winning trades X average return of winning trades > probability of losing trades X average loss of failed trades.
Only the 4 variables โaverage loss of a failed transactionโ are the most controllable and are the foundation of a successful trading system;
Psychological advantages:
The impact on the โaverage return on a winning transactionโ is most important. Most of the details are protecting profits from advantageous transactions already obtained and increasing profits by riding safely for a longer period of time;
Noise Avoidance:
The specific manifestation is ignoring the โmessage sideโ;
Unsubscribe/browse any stock discussion groups (over 99.99% of which are spam);
Uninstall Discord (mostly a platform where bastards cheat on membership fees);
Unfollow almost all stock market-related YouTubers (almost all of them are bastards and feed on self-media revenue), and only keep channels like IBD (William O'Neill's founding company) and Traderlion (the content of interviews, perceptions, and discussions with long-term winners will be on a similar level);
The trading system is very simple, and it's easy for everyone to learn and build a system that suits them;
When you really understand your psychological advantages and avoid noise, your profitability will really begin to change qualitatively ๐ด๐ป
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Cherry Cat :
MattSully : Well done and congrats on your 1st Quarter bro!
Jue J : Please suggest 2nd Quarter also
sTone83OP Jue J: There will be 4 seasons
SL99 : Rational and safe investment+find the best way for you+avoid noise, thank you
Yuan Sun8 : Boss, can you simply share your specific trading strategy
sTone83OP Yuan Sun8: In these books.