US Market Movers & Shakers (June 1st - June 29th)
The past decade has brought particularly strong months of July for the $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$, according to Carson Group. The firm's chief market strategist expects a similarly good performance this year.
In the past 10 years, the S&P 500 gained 3.3% in an average July, making it the best month on average for returns over the same period, Carson data shows. By comparison, when looking all the way back to 1950, July is the fourth-best month with an average return of just 1.1%, according to data analyzed by the Stock Trader's Almanac.
Nine of the past 10 Julys have ended positively, compared with a July win rate of about 58% going back to 1950.
Part of the performance over the past decade can be attributed to July's strong second-quarter earnings reports when stacked up against Wall Street expectations, an especially prominent trend the past two years, according to Ryan Detrick, Carson's chief market strategist.
There's been a lot of worry, and a lot of fear, about potential recessions," he said. "An earnings season comes in, and you realize, 'Things aren't so bad.' And we think that's one of the potential biggest reasons why, in our view, we've seen such strength the last decade."
The realization that the economy's on better footing could be the spark plug to keep the surprise summer rally going," Detrick said. "If more good news comes like we think it can in the form of [a] better economy than people give it credit, that could keep stocks doing pretty well."
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