Those who were only surprised by the plunge yesterday probab...

Those who were only surprised by the plunge yesterday probably didn't pay much attention to the US financial industry.

Let me say a few words casually.

1. First, the problem of SIVB is not a day or two. In November last year, I wrote in Memo: "We can see that the company SIVB is already insolvent. According to the latest financial statements, behind the equity of 15.8 billion, there are 3.6 billion preferred shares and 16 billion held-to-maturity market price (mark-to-market) loss, the company's general tangible net assets are already negative. This company has always been a β in the technology industry, especially innovation The tech industry at the start-up stage. It’s a ticking time bomb, but it’s lying on an open lawn with no explosives around and no systemic risk. I’m still bullish on the U.S. banking system. "

2. In the post last year, I was optimistic about the big banks, because these banks had a lower valuation at that time. Later, the big banks led by JP Morgan and Bank of New York Mellon did rebound very well.

3. Is SIVB value worth buying? You need to have a big heart. I won't touch it. The CEO said in the conference call, "You have to believe in our 40-year history", but today's PPT is hard to believe in this management team. Still boasting that its debt/savings ratio is the lowest among its peers. Brother, please, your loan book (loan book) has 70 billion funds, 30% of which is for start-up technology companies. This kind of loan book is also shameless to brag about the debt/savings ratio? I think it is possible for the equity of SIVB to be cleared.

4. However, the regional banks that SIVB collapsed (note that this time the opportunity is not in the big banks) have quietly reached the lowest valuation point since 1991 except for the financial crisis. The problem with SIVB is that the bond interest rate on the asset side is too low and the technology exposure is too large, and the liability side may encounter a run. Liabilities and assets are classic duration mismatches, and the source of funds is very single. This is not a problem at all for most regional banks, and these banks can still use the background of maturity repricing and high single-digit/low double-digit growth on the asset side to be guaranteed on the basis of low unemployment and solid growth net interest margin. The variety of sources of funding and variety of loans lends these banks robustness. SIVB is not universal to the entire bank, it is an isolated case, and will not lead to systemic risk. The balance sheets of America's banks have never been better.

5. Yield inversion is indeed a problem, and it will also compress profits. We will see clear signs in the first quarter. But on the other hand, we also know that the Fed's interest rate hike is coming to an end.