December 2022 total retail sales of consumer goods review: annual nominal year-on-year -0.2%, looking forward to consumption revival

Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods: December 2022 total retail sales of consumer goods were 405.42 billion yuan, nominal -1.8% YoY (+4.1 pct from previous value), higher than expected, mainly due to the high increase in demand for drugs under the influence of the epidemic in December, as well as benefiting from the Spring Festival + subjective travel intentions to improve, auto consumption market rebound; retail sales of consumer goods other than autos -2.6% YoY. January to December social zero 439,733 billion yuan, nominal The retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles was -0.2% year-on-year, and the retail sales of consumer goods other than cars were -0.4% year-on-year.

Above the limit: December retail sales of consumer goods above the limit of 1,707.1 billion yuan, -1.3% year-on-year (+4.5 pct from the previous value), higher than the overall 0.5 pct; January to December retail sales of consumer goods above the limit of 1,709.03 billion yuan, +1.4% year-on-year, higher than the overall 1.6 pct.

By consumption type: December food and beverage revenue were 415.7 billion yuan, -14.1% year-on-year (-5.7pct from the previous value). The system of home isolation under the supply side and demand side of the contact consumption scene is limited, including above the limit -17.8% year-on-year (-10.3pct from the previous value). January to December food and beverage revenue -6.3% year-on-year (-24.9pct from 21 years); December Merchandise retail sales of 3,638.5 billion yuan, -0.1% YoY (+5.5pct from previous), of which above the limit -0.2% (+5.5pct from previous.) January to December merchandise retail sales of +0.5% YoY (growth rate unchanged from 21.)

In December, the food and beverage and merchandise above-the-limit revenue underperformed the broader market. The Department of mainstream enterprises concentrates in cities and towns.

Comment: Food and oil food and beverage consumption were firm. December CPI was flat YoY and up 1.8% YoY, with food (pork, fresh fruit, etc.) prices +3.7% YoY and +0.4% YoY due to seasonal factors. Grain and oil food (+10.5% year-on-year for the month, +6.6pct from last month's year-on-year data, +8.7% year-on-year growth rate for the year, same below), beverages (+5.5% year-on-year, -11.7pct, +5.3%) positive year-on-year growth, while tobacco and alcohol (-7.3% year-on-year, -5.3pct, +2.3%) year-on-year decline, presumably the infection and recovery phase of residential consumption scenario reduced—daily necessities (-9.2% YoY, -0.1 pct, -0.7%).

Optional consumption was hit across the board, with textile and, apparel, communication equipment growth picking up from the previous month. December saw a decline in cosmetics (-19.3% YoY, -14.7pct, -4.5%), gold and silver jewelry (-18.4% YoY, -11.4pct, -1.1%), textile and apparel (-12.5% YoY, +3.1pct, -6.5%), and communication equipment (-4.5% YoY, +13.1pct, -3.4% YoY). 4.5%, +13.1pct, -3.4% YoY) consumption fell, with cosmetics, gold, and silver jewelry demand further pressured than in November.

The real estate consumption chain is relatively sluggish, auto consumption turns positive, and hoarding demand is high. in December, home appliances (-13.1% YoY, +4.2pct, -3.9%), furniture (-5.8% YoY, -1.8pct, -7.5%), decorative building materials (-8.9% YoY, +1.1pct, -6.2%) are still disturbed by real estate; according to CCA data, December passenger car Retail volume +3% year-on-year, +31.4% YoY, due to the repair of more residents' willingness to travel as well as the Spring Festival consumption front, auto consumption side (+4.6% YoY, +8.8pct, +0.7%), growth rate turned positive; petroleum and products (-2.9% YoY, -1.3pct, +9.7%); Chinese and Western medicines (+39.8% YoY, +31.5%, +12.4%) by Rapid growth in demand for drug hoarding by residents.

Online retail sales growth rate +4% from Jan to Dec. Online retail sales from Jan to Dec were RMB13,785.3 billion, cumulative +4% YoY; online retail sales in Dec were about RMB1,326.8 billion, +9.3% YoY, +8.9 pct from last month.

December physical online retail penetration was about 30.2%. January to December physical online retail sales were 119,642 billion yuan, cumulative +6.2% YoY (+5.8-pct from 21), accounting for 30.2%, 27.2%, and 34.2% of [merchandise retailing]/[social retailing]/[merchandise retailing net of auto] respectively.

December physical online retail sales were 115.44 billion yuan for the month. Among online retail sales of material goods, January-December online retail sales of food, clothing, and consumer goods accumulated +16.1%/+3.5%/+5.7% year-on-year.

January to December non-physical online retail sales of 1,821.1 billion yuan, cumulative year-on-year -20.3%, compared with 21 years growth rate of -34.4pct, the annual impact of the epidemic online OTAs and other scheduled decline.

Annual offline consumption under pressure. 1~December [total social zero - online physical goods retail sales] 320.91 billion yuan, cumulative year-on-year -3.8%; December year-on-year -7.3% (+3.2pct from November).

Risk warning: Repeated epidemic, consumption recovery is not as expected, etc.