US 2022 Midterm Elections

Republican party was still stronger

The final stretch polls for the US midterm elections are out, and they can help answer some of the questions everyone is asking - who will win?  Democrat or Republican?
The final stretch polls for the US midterm elections are out, and they can help answer some of the questions everyone is asking - who will win?  Democrat or Republican?
There are signs that Republicans are on the verge of regaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time in four years.
The upper house of Congress, the Senate, remains evenly matched and unpredictable.  Republicans have more avenues to win Congress than Democrats, who have held a majority for nearly two years.
Knowing the likelihood of an election outcome in both houses is just a matter of math.
In the House of Representatives, Republicans only need to regain five of the 435 seats to have a majority.
According to the Cook Political Report, which analyzes the competitiveness of all parties based on poll data and the potential situation of the election, Republicans have an advantage in 212 seats.  They only need to win six seats in 35 races that are considered close for a majority.  Ten of those seats are currently held by Republicans.  The 100-seat Senate is somewhat simpler to understand.  Only 35 seats are up for election this year, and only a fraction of them are contested.
Republicans only need one more seat than their opponents to keep the upper house in their hands.  Since Democrats want to keep more seats than Republicans, Democrats have more ways to lose the Senate.  That gives Republicans a head start, albeit by a slim margin.
It seems likely that Republicans will control at least one of both houses of Congress when the dust settles in this midterm election.
After two years of Democratic control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, the balance of power in this country could change.  Here are four very real potential impacts on U.S. politics over the next two years.  Biden's legislative agenda will end
Despite the intermittent process, Biden and Democrats have been able to develop a more solid legislative agenda after two years in office.  Including huge spending on the environment, health care and other social programs.
Those will all end once the Republicans win on Tuesday.
Opportunities for bipartisanship on certain issues.  For example, Republicans and Democrats did pass gun control and technology investment bills together this year, and infrastructure spending last year.  However, major liberal issues such as abortion, education and voting rights will be utterly hopeless.
Republicans have their own legislative agenda, focusing in particular on border security, law enforcement spending, budget cuts and fossil fuel extraction.  Even if they control both the House and Senate, Democrats could still block legislation by passing a "Raab" rule in the Senate or using Biden's veto in the White House.
For the next two years, the main storyline will be legislative deadlock.
Biden will only seek to implement some policies unilaterally, while Republicans in Congress will operate on the fringes.  They will save any sweeping changes until 2024, when they hope to win back the presidency and expand their advantage in Congress.  Republicans will have the power to investigate
For two years, Democrats have been in charge -- including the ability to focus vast congressional oversight on issues that concern them.  That includes expanding the investigation into the events that hit Congress on January 6, 2021, as well as hearings on issues such as abortion, health care and voting rights.
If Republicans gain control of congressional committees, those priorities will shift quickly.  Conservatives in the House of Representatives have promised hearings on Joe Biden's son Hunter's business dealings with China.  They also want to investigate the Biden administration's immigration policies, the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the origins of the coronavirus pandemic in China.
The Senate Judiciary Committee handles the review of lists submitted by the President to the federal court.  Democrats have set a contemporary record for the number of new justices appointed for life in the past two years.
If Republicans also take control of the U.S. Senate, expect a pause in the Biden nomination process.  And if there is a vacancy in the Supreme Court, there is a good chance it will remain vacant until the next presidential election.
Risk of a government shutdown
When Democrats took control of Congress, the United States had two years to temporarily avoid a "cockfighting game" in the legislative process that led to a government shutdown and a near default on its national debt.
This is coming to an end.
The law requires Congress to authorize the issuance of new government bonds to cover expenditures that have already been passed.  Some Republicans, including Congressman Kevin McCarthy, who is sure to become speaker of the House if Republicans take over the House, are threatening to use this to force Democrats to agree to sweeping budget cuts.

The United States has never defaulted on its national debt.

But partial government shutdowns due to Congress failing to pass annual budget legislation have become more common.  It happened twice under Trump and once under Obama.
If Republicans and Democrats fail to develop a consensus framework on government spending, another shutdown seems likely by the end of next year.
Biden's Dangerous Future
Republican control of Congress would be a difficult outcome for Biden to swallow.  He campaigned as a figure who could unite Americans after a tumultuous four years under Trump.  But he will face a country as torn as ever, a Congress hostile to him that wants to liquidate his administration and his family, and the possibility that Trump himself may seek to re-enter the White House.
Most presidents experience electoral setbacks midway through their first term.  While some will come back to win re-election, for Biden, such an outcome shows his political weakness.  It could revive calls for him to step aside to another Democrat when the 2024 presidential election cycle begins.
Both the president and his advisers have insisted he will seek re-election.  The White House has announced that Biden will give a public speech on Wednesday to talk about the election.
It remains to be seen how he handles this speech, and how he handles the adversity that will come in the months ahead.  It will have a huge impact on how much support he will have in his own party for another four years.