Farm Report Update

you know I love the farm report, and follow the farmers almanac for the weather. The farmers are always at the heart of many issues and whatever is currently happening to them will inevitably effect everyone else. Here is a simple summary.

Harvest is underway and USDA has adjusted yields DOWN (duh)

Soybeans - 49.8 bushels per acre Down from 50.5 in September or a drop of .7 tenths (-.5 est) with an overall drop in production (a common theme)

Corn - 171.9 bushels per acre Down from 172.5 in September

Wheat - 46.5 per acre Down from 47.5 in September

Exports were also cut: with a note that the uncompetitive US export prices have led to the lowest exports since 1971

U.S. ending stocks (amount expected to be in inventory by market year end) :

Corn - 1.172 billion bushels Down from 1.219 billion in September

Soybeans - 200 million bushels even from September 200 million

Wheat - 576 million bushels Down from 610 million in September

Orange crop, because of hurricane Ian, is down 3.19 million tons or 8% overall and 32% in Florida. Early and midseason varieties are down 40% with the full impacts from the hurricane unknown until the next forecast in December.

INFLATION accelerated in September .4 month over month with food over 11%!

The railroad agreement was rejected by the first union, and 3rd largest of the many unions that bargain with the railroads. A labor strike remains a possibility with November 19th as a deadline according to the union, a tentative agreement was struck and touted by the White House on September 19th. Railroads transport 30% of all goods in the US.  (it is my belief that there are more rejections to come as the bargain struck threw a bunch of money *24% at the union, but heres the problem - they make great money. that's not their issue, they have no life and want time off without the ability to be called to work with no say of when or where, along with very specific safety and staffing demands that were neglected )

Water levels are at the lowest in 9 years on the Mississippi and Ohio rivers. Corn shipments are sitting at loading points as barges have been severely slowed and halted at some ports due to groundings. (This is another issue putting pressure on the railroads)

The Root Zone remains dry with drought conditions throughout the midwest reaching exceptional drought conditions from Kansas to California.

Brazil is beginning production with an estimated 20% crop increase over 2021 production (a record down year), any adjustment could massively move markets.

As always Good Luck