AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Jumps to a New 2022 High

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market is at its highest level of the year. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows pessimism rising for just the second time in seven weeks.

- Expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 1.2 percentage points to 33.3%.

- Optimism recorded since December 30, 2021 (37.7%).

- Despite recent increases, bullish sentiment remains below its historical average of 38.0% for the 39th consecutive week.

- Expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, declined 1.7 percentage points to 29.5%.

- Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 15th time in 17 weeks.

- Expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 0.5 percentage points to 37.2%.

- It is above its historical average of 30.5% for the 38th time out of the past 39 weeks.

Both bullish and bearish sentiment as well as the bull-bear spread are currently within their typical ranges.

Optimism has improved as the stock market has rebounded, but the year’s declines along with inflation, corporate earnings and concerns about the possibility of a recession are weighing on individual investors’ short-term expectations for the stock market. Also influencing sentiment are monetary policy, the coronavirus pandemic, politics and the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

About AAII Sentiment Survey

- Measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market short term.

- Individuals are polled from the AAII Web site on a weekly basis.