8/15 - 8/31 SPX, QQQ, DIA, IWM, SMH... Simple analysis

Crude oil- /CL. The monthly crude oil level is still trending downward. The weekly level has entered the oversold range (the bottom of the weekly level is 86.85), and the daily level has broken through 95.21 in the short term, rising to around 102

The bottom of the SPX- monthly level formed an upward trend (crossover). The weekly level entered the overbought zone, the upward momentum of the daily level slowed down, and the RSI showed a clear divergence, falling back into the 4237-4194 range in the short term

The bottom of the QQQ-monthly level formed an upward trend (crossover). The weekly level entered the overbought zone. The upward momentum of the daily level slowed down, and the RSI showed a clear divergence, falling back into the 323-319 range in the short term

The situation at the IWM-monthly and weekly levels is similar to SPX and QQQ, but the momentum of the daily level is clearly stronger than the previous two indices. Focus on individual stock opportunities

DIA- The daily level of the Dow index is also stronger than SPX and QQQ, focusing on individual stock opportunities

SPX

In my personal opinion, if you look at the monthly level, compared to the rebound after the sharp fall in March 2020, there is a big gap in quantitative energy. Everyone knows that it was because of the Federal Reserve's release of water at the time. However, compared to the rebound this time, the volume is clearly weak; it is possible that large sums of money have not entered the market yet. It is now at a critical point of rebound, and a certain amount of energy is needed to keep the index higher. In terms of inflation data, although the July data has eased somewhat, it is still far above the target of leaving the Federal Reserve. Since the data shows that the US employment and economy are so strong, logically speaking, the Federal Reserve will speed up downsizing and interest rate hikes to further reduce inflation. However, I don't think the rate hike will be too strong. Because the inversion of 2-year and 10-year treasury yields indicates that investors are pessimistic about the future US economy, I think the probability of 0.5% in September is still quite high. As long as the strength of the Fed's contraction is moderate, there is still a high probability that the market will continue to shrink and rise.