Wall Street Today | Recession probability soars as inflation worsens
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Recession Probability Soars As Inflation Worsens
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal have dramatically raised the probability of recession, now putting it at 44% in the next 12 months, a level usually seen only on the brink of or during actual recessions.
The likelihood of a recession has increased rapidly this year as inflationary pressures remained strong and the Federal Reserve took increasingly aggressive action to tame them.
Rising Inflation and Interest Rates Heap Pressure on Emerging Markets
Slowing growth, scorching inflation and rising U.S. interest rates are intensifying a squeeze on emerging-market finances and stoking concern over a fully fledged debt crisis in low- and middle-income countries.
The anxiety is evident in sky-high bond yields and month after month of capital outflows, as investors ditch the assets of vulnerable countries in favor of safer returns elsewhere.
Yellen Says Recession Not 'inevitable' Despite Forecasts
"I expect the economy to slow. It's been growing at a very rapid rate" as the labor market has recovered to full employment, Yellen told ABC's This Week. "It's natural now that we expect to transition to steady and stable growth, but I don't think a recession is at all inevitable."
SECTORS
Germany Steps Up Measures to Conserve Gas As Russia Slows Supply to Europe
Germany will restart coal-fired power plants and offer incentives for companies to curb natural gas consumption, marking a new step in the economic war between Europe and Russia.
The steps, part of a broader strategy initiated after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, aims to reduce gas consumption and divert gas deliveries to storage facilities to ensure that the country has enough gas reserves to get through the winter.
Mining Firms' Cautious Spending Threatens Shift to Green Energy
Much like the oil industry, mining companies are responding to pressure from investors to give priority to dividends and share buybacks, rather than heavy spending. A recent push to limit the sector's environmental damage also pinched spending.
Retailers' Inventories Pile Up as Lead Times Grow
One culprit for the inventory piling up at many retailers is long lead times that are getting even longer.
Factory closures, shipping delays, port backlogs and other supply-chain bottlenecks wrought by the Covid-19 pandemic are prompting chains from $Target(TGT.US)$to $Gap Inc(GPS.US)$ to start designing new products and placing orders with overseas factories further in advance, making it harder to match supply with demand.
COMPANIES
Apple Employees at Retail Store Vote to Unionize
Apple Inc. employees at a retail store outside of Baltimore voted to unionize on Saturday.
The move creates the first union of $Apple(AAPL.US)$retail employees in the U.S. The store employs more than 100 people who were eligible to vote, according to the National Labor Relations Board, the federal agency that is overseeing the election.
Disney's Dana Walden Looks to Push Past Corporate Chaos
Writer and producer Danny Strong was unaccustomed to high-ranking television executives calling him at odd hours for in-depth discussions about a project.
That changed when he began making shows for Dana Walden, who last week was thrust into the role of chairman of $Walt Disney(DIS.US)$'s General Entertainment Content unit, a job that comes with oversight of more than 300 shows and an annual budget of around $10 billion.
Source: Bloomberg, WSJ, CNBC, Barron's
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2ndBreakfast : Says the guy that said inflation was transitory from the office that has created a recession 8/9 since 1960 to control "inflation". Sure, we'll believe you this time, Powell.