THE WEEK AHEAD ending April 1
What a wild week. good or bad it was wild, but have we reversed?
I don't believe we have reversed, and I will explain why I am still Bearish, hopefully also explain why we may be entering another stretch where energy and metals surge while tech declines.
Here are NQ charts, the trendline (blue) is the same the only thing changing is the time frame. $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(JUN4)(NQmain.US$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$
I don't believe we have reversed, and I will explain why I am still Bearish, hopefully also explain why we may be entering another stretch where energy and metals surge while tech declines.
Here are NQ charts, the trendline (blue) is the same the only thing changing is the time frame. $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(JUN4)(NQmain.US$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$
NQ remains in overbought territory, while the daily ended on a doji (a doji can be indecision and can signal a reversal, although see how we went right through the doji 4 days ago) also pushing against a mild resistance. These are tough charts because there is a lot of bullish there also. $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US$ $ProShares UltraShort QQQ(QID.US$
Because of bullish and bearish indicators we can not just look at NQ. I am after all mostly a commodities investor and this is my GOLDEN period.
So let's look at VIX (vix is the volatility index) basically it registers the fear of the market (*and protects you from it, but there are better instruments to protect yourself with, it's best to just monitor it) if you sell it you believe there is no fear and the market is going up, if you hold you are uncertain, and if you buy you believe the market is going down. *I use different vix charts one is futures and one is SPY VIX dont worry they closely mirror each other, but there is about a 3 dollar difference $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index(.VIX.US$ $VIX Index Futures(MAY4)(VXmain.US$
Because of bullish and bearish indicators we can not just look at NQ. I am after all mostly a commodities investor and this is my GOLDEN period.
So let's look at VIX (vix is the volatility index) basically it registers the fear of the market (*and protects you from it, but there are better instruments to protect yourself with, it's best to just monitor it) if you sell it you believe there is no fear and the market is going up, if you hold you are uncertain, and if you buy you believe the market is going down. *I use different vix charts one is futures and one is SPY VIX dont worry they closely mirror each other, but there is about a 3 dollar difference $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index(.VIX.US$ $VIX Index Futures(MAY4)(VXmain.US$
That's a lot of charts... It leads me to one question
do I believe an oversold instrument will continue to sell off because the market is healthy and ready to fly?
NO, I do not.
What I believe is that the market has another leg down (and probability of a big one). APPL and TSLA will be the last to go and because APPL is so heavily weighted in QQQ (12.5%) let's look at it.
do I believe an oversold instrument will continue to sell off because the market is healthy and ready to fly?
NO, I do not.
What I believe is that the market has another leg down (and probability of a big one). APPL and TSLA will be the last to go and because APPL is so heavily weighted in QQQ (12.5%) let's look at it.
9 straight green days![]()
And as I was looking at the charts I found this. I talked about this in prior posts friday, but smart money exited and sold at a high. Now shorts who sold before the spike are back in.
As we keep looking at the market as a whole, I see energy running again. Energy is a drag on the markets especially tech because it makes everything more expensive (if I have a manufacturing plant energy just went from 5% of my budget to 12% or more I need to raise prices to maintain my profit or my earnings will fall lowering the value of my company. And what if I make a widget that no one really needs how can I maintain my company's profit margin? And when everyone pays more for energy they dont have as much to spend, are people going to continually pour money into apps and products... see what tech is facing) Let's look at oil. the purple 3 level trendline goes back to 2015. we have broken above it, tested it and stayed above. 112 is the historical high (until it was recently shattered) and now looks to be support![]()
![]()
Oh no tech! 🚨🚨🚨 $VanEck Oil Services ETF(OIH.US$ $Crude Oil Futures(JUN4)(CLmain.US$
And just for good measure let's look at SILVER just so we can get a better feel for the market. why silver? because silver is used in batteries micro chips, electric conductors etc. (EVs use about 3 oz or more of silver) it is an industrial metal (and a collector's metal making it valuable to many different people) $Micro Silver Futures(JUL4)(SILmain.US$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV.US$ $Sprott Physical Silver Trust(PSLV.US$
25.6 is support. Do I believe silver is going to breakdown from this number and for tech to rally? No I believe silver is going to test that bottom range of the breakout channel around 29-33.
So it is my belief that Oil, Silver (and the other commodities) breakout, and tech breaks down. But the charts as you can see are all at turning points, so which way will it turn??? GOOD LUCK!! This is long enough I know, but a parting quote:
"Although there are countless scourges which in general debilitate kingdoms... the four most important are- dissension, mortality, barren soil, and debasement of the currency. The first three are so obvious that nobody is unaware of their existence. But the fourth, which concerns money, is taken into account by few persons and only the most perspicacious. For it undermines states, not by a single attack all at once but gradually and in a certain covert manner" -Copernicus
$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US$ $VanEck Gold Miners Equity ETF(GDX.US$
So it is my belief that Oil, Silver (and the other commodities) breakout, and tech breaks down. But the charts as you can see are all at turning points, so which way will it turn??? GOOD LUCK!! This is long enough I know, but a parting quote:
"Although there are countless scourges which in general debilitate kingdoms... the four most important are- dissension, mortality, barren soil, and debasement of the currency. The first three are so obvious that nobody is unaware of their existence. But the fourth, which concerns money, is taken into account by few persons and only the most perspicacious. For it undermines states, not by a single attack all at once but gradually and in a certain covert manner" -Copernicus
$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US$ $VanEck Gold Miners Equity ETF(GDX.US$
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101633546 : Hi can I verify with u if I draw the bearish divergence on the daily and 4 HR of appl chart correctly? Thanks.
iamiamOP 101633546: Yes, got it. and then combine that with decreasing volume (less participation, a sustained run should have sustained volume but volume can always show up and throw the charts bullish
)
101633546 iamiamOP: Thanks. Am I interpret sustainable volume properly meaning constant above average volume? Does not need to be keep increasing in volume but at least remain above average?
iamiamOP 101633546: the initial spike can stay elevated but i would like to see sustained at some level not decreasing.
101633546 iamiamOP: Noted. Thanks. Will compare other charts to understand further. Thanks again.
iamiamOP 101633546: with spikes and lows in volume think of large spikes red or green as institutions (smart money) because they move large amounts (volume) also called blocks
conversely small volume bars are generally retail (dumb money, sad but called that for a reason). Remember everything is general and not an absolute rule.
Moomoobo : The leg down will hit new lower low?
iamiamOP Moomoobo: if we go lower I believe so.
Moomoobo iamiamOP: If lower , based on trend we should plunge fast and hard? seeing new Low in a week time?
iamiamOP Moomoobo: nothing is guaranteed so I say "if" analysis only increases your odds nothing is perfect. But here is another NQ, where do you believe its going?
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