Outlook for 2022: where will the new energy sector go?

Recently, with the institutional stock exchange at the end of the year and the acceleration of the layout next year, the rotation of the market style has accelerated, the new energy sector has fluctuated at a high level, and a number of related stocks have been sold off by institutions, with obvious signs of profit-taking of funds.

Looking to the future, where will the technology sector go? How will the new energy sector perform? In this regard, a number of institutions have expressed their latest views.

A number of institutions believe that the acceleration of institutional reconfiguration at the end of the year will aggravate the fluctuations in the core industries that adjust positions and exchange shares, and the plates with higher increases have certain short-term adjustment pressure, and the new energy sector will continue the trend of fluctuations in its current position, but after the profit-taking and selling pressure of funds at the end of the year, the new energy sector will once again usher in a better opportunity to get on the bus after adjustment.

The policy of new energy vehicles in the United States has made substantial progress again, and the penetration rate will accelerate in the future. Subsidies and tax credits are higher than before. On the consumer side, the tax credit policy has been relaxed; for car companies, the subsidy backslope restriction has been abolished.

It is suggested to pay attention to the long-term trend and short-term rhythm of green energy such as photovoltaic and wind power The pressure on the photovoltaic supply chain is expected to ease steadily in 2022. Wind power has entered the stage of parity, the process of large-scale wind turbines has been accelerated, and the competitiveness of the industrial chain has been strengthened.

Electronic semiconductors have witnessed the trend of hardware convergence industry. Semiconductor boom, intensified differentiation; intelligence, electrification promote the vigorous development of automotive electronics; consumer electronics, mobile phones stable low-speed growth, VR/AR, Mini LED speed up growth; following hardware integration, software integration will become the future trend.

The impact of recent capital side disturbances on market volatility continues to strengthen, trading volume has also increased month-on-month, and the impact of the stock market on the near-term market is expected to continue to strengthen next year. Industries such as new energy batteries, which have higher valuations and more controversial supply and demand next year, have undergone large and rapid adjustments. While the warming of expectations for stable growth has led to the performance of spirits and green infrastructure sectors, the acceleration of institutional reallocation at the end of the year has also accelerated the above expectations and intensified the volatility of the core industries in which positions are traded for shares. this to some extent explains the drastic adjustment in industries such as new energy batteries.

Under the demand for profit-taking of funds at the end of the year, the sectors with higher increases have a certain short-term adjustment pressure, the new energy sector in the current position will continue the trend of volatility, high valuation stages have digested pressure and demand. In addition, be wary of some possible reversals in supply and demand, and the share prices of these varieties are likely to be more volatile.

At the same time, Huaxia Fund gives the following logic:

1. New energy is one of the sectors with the highest growth rate next year. The performance growth of new energy vehicles is gradually realized. The performance growth of energy storage, photovoltaic and smart grid is expected to be higher. The growth rate of a large number of sub-industries is more than 40%. It is difficult to have a bear market in prosperity.

2. From batteries and lithium devices to upstream resources, the competition pattern has been relatively stable. Leading enterprises have obvious barriers in terms of market share, technical route reserve and financing, which are difficult to be subverted in the medium term.

3. Next year will be a big year for the release of demand, the penetration of new energy vehicles will increase, photovoltaic, energy storage and power grids will all grow rapidly, but the shortage of supply will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. It is good for the leading enterprises with strong price transmission capacity and the subdivided high-quality second-tier enterprises that disperse part of the share of the head enterprises by virtue of technological progress.

Cui Yulong, this year's "champion fund manager", is more optimistic about the performance of new energy power operators next year, saying that the overall rapid development of new energy has brought about the need for upgrading of new technologies and new products, including high-voltage fast charging technology. Demand such as frequency modulation and peak regulation; next year, component prices are expected to stabilize, and silicon prices are loose, which means that the initial investment cost of operators to invest in power stations next year will be reduced, effectively improving the rate of return on the project. Therefore, operators who are particularly optimistic about new energy power are now optimistic because the cash flow and profits earned after parity match.