The Rise of Nasdaq during the Stagflation Period in the United States

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we believe that there is no major systemic risk in the market. Although the economy is down, it will not get out of control. The policy is expected to maintain a wide currency and structural wide credit structure.

Taking into account the gradual shrinking of overseas liquidity, PPI will turn its head down. It is recommended:

1. Contraction cycle configuration;

2. The denominator side of the high-end manufacturing sector with high valuation and high prosperity is also under certain pressure. Seasonal interference of power and production restrictions is superimposed. There are also short-term disturbances on the molecular side, but it is optimistic in the medium and long term;

3. Due to the short-term correction of the real estate policy, there is a phased restoration of the market;

4. Consumption benefited from the alleviation of the epidemic, and fundamental improvements are expected. In the medium and long term, China's consumption still has huge room for improvement. Consumption upgrade is still a major theme. After preliminary adjustments, the current valuation is gradually acceptable and has significant configuration value. .

Risk warning: 1. The risk-free interest rate goes up; 2. The economy is less than expected.