Moomoo Singapore 2Q Market Outlook Report

1. THE NEW MACRO - STICKY INFLATION, STRUCTURALLY HIGHER RATES AND RESILIENT GROWTH

As central banks around the world continue their fight against inflation, at least in the US, Q1 2024 has shown us that the economy has been pretty much robust with unemployment numbers drifting lower and non-farm payroll numbers consistently beating estimates. With that, the Fed has been slow to cutting rates. Further, US treasury yields continue to climb higher, which makes any delay in the Fed rate cut less impactful.

2. COMMODITIES, THE BULL IN A CHINA SHOP

While the majority of the retail crowd are fixated on the meteoric rise and bull run in the stock markets, cryptocurrencies and gold, there are other commodities that also offer cheaper alternatives and have yet to take off. Further it remains to be seen if the current commodities bull run is because of the anticipated interest rate cuts or it is a sinister hint of a recessionary environment with elevated interest rates.

3. US 2024 PRESIDENTIAL MARATHON - FIRST ELECTION REMATCH IN 50 YEARS

The 2024 US presidential race starts much earlier this year as the republican party very quickly rallied behind their candidate, ex-president Donald Trump. With both presidential candidates decided earlier than usual, investors can expect more crossing of swords between incumbent President Biden and his predecessor Trump. The markets will have to deal with more volatility as sentiment starts swinging between Trump's protectionist and "America First" policies against Biden's more open and liberal policies. All these against a backdrop of a more polarizing geo-political climate.

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