Chongqing Chuanyi Automation Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:603100 ) stock didn't jump after it announced some healthy earnings. We think that investors might be worried about some concerning underlying factors.
Examining Cashflow Against Chongqing Chuanyi Automation's Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Over the twelve months to March 2024, Chongqing Chuanyi Automation recorded an accrual ratio of 0.21. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. In fact, it had free cash flow of CN¥310m in the last year, which was a lot less than its statutory profit of CN¥752.9m. Chongqing Chuanyi Automation shareholders will no doubt be hoping that its free cash flow bounces back next year, since it was down over the last twelve months.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Chongqing Chuanyi Automation's Profit Performance
Chongqing Chuanyi Automation's accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Because of this, we think that it may be that Chongqing Chuanyi Automation's statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. But at least holders can take some solace from the 34% per annum growth in EPS for the last three. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Chongqing Chuanyi Automation (1 is potentially serious) you should be familiar with.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Chongqing Chuanyi Automation's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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つまり、負の決算比率は良いことであるため、その会社は利益よりも多くのフリーキャッシュフローを引き込んでいることを示しています。これは、私たちが謝罪する必要もない肯定的な決算比率について心配しなければならないことを意味するわけではありませんが、決算比率が非常に高い場合には注意が必要です。Lewellen and Resutekの2014年の論文を引用すると、「高い決算比率の企業は将来的には利益が低くなる傾向がある」とのことです。