What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. However, after briefly looking over the numbers, we don't think Xinfengming Group (SHSE:603225) has the makings of a multi-bagger going forward, but let's have a look at why that may be.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. The formula for this calculation on Xinfengming Group is:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.062 = CN¥1.8b ÷ (CN¥55b - CN¥26b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).
Thus, Xinfengming Group has an ROCE of 6.2%. Even though it's in line with the industry average of 5.7%, it's still a low return by itself.
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Xinfengming Group compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Xinfengming Group .
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
When we looked at the ROCE trend at Xinfengming Group, we didn't gain much confidence. To be more specific, ROCE has fallen from 17% over the last five years. However, given capital employed and revenue have both increased it appears that the business is currently pursuing growth, at the consequence of short term returns. If these investments prove successful, this can bode very well for long term stock performance.
Another thing to note, Xinfengming Group has a high ratio of current liabilities to total assets of 48%. This effectively means that suppliers (or short-term creditors) are funding a large portion of the business, so just be aware that this can introduce some elements of risk. Ideally we'd like to see this reduce as that would mean fewer obligations bearing risks.
What We Can Learn From Xinfengming Group's ROCE
In summary, despite lower returns in the short term, we're encouraged to see that Xinfengming Group is reinvesting for growth and has higher sales as a result. In light of this, the stock has only gained 14% over the last five years. Therefore we'd recommend looking further into this stock to confirm if it has the makings of a good investment.
One more thing, we've spotted 1 warning sign facing Xinfengming Group that you might find interesting.
While Xinfengming Group may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.