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While Shareholders of Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group (SZSE:000623) Are in the Red Over the Last Five Years, Underlying Earnings Have Actually Grown

Simply Wall St ·  Apr 21 21:23

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers So we wouldn't blame long term Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000623) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 18% over a half decade.

On a more encouraging note the company has added CN¥753m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

While the share price declined over five years, Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 8.7% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

It is unusual to see such modest share price growth in the face of sustained EPS improvements. We can look to other metrics to try to understand the situation better.

The steady dividend doesn't really explain why the share price is down. While it's not completely obvious why the share price is down, a closer look at the company's history might help explain it.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SZSE:000623 Earnings and Revenue Growth April 22nd 2024

Take a more thorough look at Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group, it has a TSR of -12% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While it's certainly disappointing to see that Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group shares lost 7.6% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 15%. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it's worse than the annualised loss of 2% over the last half decade. Whilst Baron Rothschild does tell the investor "buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own", buyers would need to examine the data carefully to be comfortable that the business itself is sound. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group .

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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