Oxford Industries, Inc. (NYSE:OXM) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.0% to US$105 in the week after its latest full-year results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$3.82, some 60% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$1.6b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following the latest results, Oxford Industries' six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.64b in 2025. This would be a modest 4.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 142% to US$9.40. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.62b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.35 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$106, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Oxford Industries analyst has a price target of US$120 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$94.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Oxford Industries is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Oxford Industries' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.6% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Oxford Industries is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Oxford Industries. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Oxford Industries' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Oxford Industries going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Oxford Industries you should know about.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.