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【券商聚焦】东吴证券维持海底捞(06862)“买入”评级 继续看好公司业绩弹性与较强确定性

[Broker Focus] Dongwu Securities maintains Haidilao (06862) “buy” rating and continues to be optimistic about the company's performance flexibility and strong certainty

金吾財訊 ·  Feb 23 03:04

Jinwu Financial News | According to Dongwu Securities Research, Haidilao (06862) issued a positive profit forecast. It is expected that revenue in 2023 will not be less than 41.4 billion yuan (yoy +33.3%, up 66% from 2019), and net profit from continuing operations will not be less than 4.4 billion yuan (yoy +168.3%, up 71.8% from 2019).

According to the bank, 2023H2 revenue was 22.5 billion yuan (yoy +41.7%). The bank expects its corresponding turnover rate to be around 4.0 times. The rebound continued to exceed expectations in the second half of the year, leading the industry with a strong performance. What is behind it is a flexible and efficient business philosophy of “connecting interests and locking in management”. The results of the Woodpecker Program continue to be realized in a stable business environment. Specifically, the bank summarized its successful experience as follows: 1) bucking the trend and increasing employee confidence & motivation; 2) refining the assessment of results such as store managers' monthly & quarterly turnover rate, and implementing a store manager elimination mechanism; 3) New products launched in 2023 are more frequent & grounded, and more than 300 new products have been launched throughout the year; 4) Grassroots innovation, brand marketing wins back young consumer dancers (3 subjects) Dance, concert bus transfers, active promotions, etc.); 5) Benefit Supply in the industry is clear, and the concentration of leaders continues to increase.

The bank added that 2023H2 net profit was 2.14 billion yuan (including exchange losses), and net profit of 2.27 billion yuan after excluding exchange rate fluctuations of 130 million yuan, achieved net profit of 2.27 billion yuan (10% increase over 23H1 profit of 2.07 billion yuan). The 2023H2 net operating interest rate is not less than 10.1% (23H1 is 10.9%), mainly due to the rapid increase in the number of employees and wages due to the rapid increase in the turnover rate. The labor cost ratio increased sequentially, and the profit margin was in a healthy range.

The bank said that it is expected that the turnover rate will stabilize around 4 times in 2024, with 70-80 new main brand stores, and profit margins are expected to increase steadily and slightly; 2) the company has entered a mature development stage, and capital expenditure has dropped drastically. In the future, it will pay more attention to shareholder returns and gradually increase the dividend ratio. The bank expects the dividend rate to rise to 3% + in 2024; 3) The diversification matrix of stores and brands opens up space for medium- to long-term growth. The main brands will expand in different cities; emerging brands such as “Hi Lao,” “Brother Miao Fried Chicken,” and “Three Foods with Whole Grains” will continue to experiment with expansion. Based on the 2023 results and the assumption of a steady recovery of the industry in 2024, the bank adjusted net profit due to mother in 2023-2025 to RMB 44/51/57 billion (previous value was RMB 47/60/7.2 billion yuan), an increase of 168.7%/16.9%/11.5% year-on-year. The current closing price corresponds to a 3-year dynamic PE of 16/14/12 times. Continue to be optimistic about the company's performance flexibility and strong certainty, and maintain a “buy” rating.

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