What XD Inc.'s (HKG:2400) 34% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Simply Wall St ·  Feb 16 17:20

Those holding XD Inc. (HKG:2400) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 34% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 59% share price drop in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think XD's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.3x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Entertainment industry is similar at about 1.6x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

SEHK:2400 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 16th 2024

What Does XD's Recent Performance Look Like?

XD could be doing better as it's been growing revenue less than most other companies lately. It might be that many expect the uninspiring revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S ratio from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Keen to find out how analysts think XD's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

XD's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 23%. Revenue has also lifted 21% in aggregate from three years ago, mostly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 18% as estimated by the twelve analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 49% growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this information, we find it interesting that XD is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From XD's P/S?

Its shares have lifted substantially and now XD's P/S is back within range of the industry median. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our look at the analysts forecasts of XD's revenue prospects has shown that its inferior revenue outlook isn't negatively impacting its P/S as much as we would have predicted. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for XD that you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of XD's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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