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More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Ningbo Zhongbai Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600857) Shares After Tumbling 25%

「宁波中百股份有限公司」株が25%下落した後、ますます不快な驚きが待ち受けている可能性があります。 (SHSE:600857)

Simply Wall St ·  02/02 18:14

The Ningbo Zhongbai Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600857) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 25%. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 35% in that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, there still wouldn't be many who think Ningbo Zhongbai's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.3x is worth a mention when the median P/S in China's Multiline Retail industry is similar at about 1.7x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SHSE:600857 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry February 2nd 2024

How Ningbo Zhongbai Has Been Performing

Ningbo Zhongbai certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing its revenue at a really rapid pace. It might be that many expect the strong revenue performance to wane, which has kept the share price, and thus the P/S ratio, from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Ningbo Zhongbai's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

Ningbo Zhongbai's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 49% last year. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow revenue by 45% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been superb for the company.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 73% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we find it interesting that Ningbo Zhongbai is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Bottom Line On Ningbo Zhongbai's P/S

Ningbo Zhongbai's plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Ningbo Zhongbai's average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's hard to accept the current share price as fair value.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Ningbo Zhongbai that you need to take into consideration.

If you're unsure about the strength of Ningbo Zhongbai's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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