It's been a mediocre week for AnaptysBio, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANAB) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to US$23.41 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$7.2m crushed expectations, although expenses understandably increased with statutory losses reaching US$1.64 per share, somewhat higher than what the analysts forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the nine analysts covering AnaptysBio, is for revenues of US$19.3m in 2024. This implies an uneasy 16% reduction in AnaptysBio's revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$6.07. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$17.4m and US$6.28 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.
Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$43.67, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AnaptysBio at US$80.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$20.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that AnaptysBio's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 20% to the end of 2024. This tops off a historical decline of 0.5% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 19% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately AnaptysBio is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$43.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for AnaptysBio going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that AnaptysBio is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us...
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