It is doubtless a positive to see that the China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited (HKG:291) share price has gained some 33% in the last three months. But that doesn't help the fact that the three year return is less impressive. In fact, the share price is down 42% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, China Resources Beer (Holdings) actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 35% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
The modest 1.8% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 6.7% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching China Resources Beer (Holdings) more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
China Resources Beer (Holdings) is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think China Resources Beer (Holdings) will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 0.5% in the twelve months, China Resources Beer (Holdings) shareholders did even worse, losing 29% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 2% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. Before forming an opinion on China Resources Beer (Holdings) you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.