Every investor on earth makes bad calls sometimes. But you have a problem if you face massive losses more than once in a while. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of Lumen Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:LUMN) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 91%. That would certainly shake our confidence in the decision to own the stock. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 49% in a year. Even worse, it's down 24% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.
With the stock having lost 13% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
Because Lumen Technologies made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
In the last three years Lumen Technologies saw its revenue shrink by 12% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. Having said that the 24% annualized share price decline highlights the risk of investing in unprofitable companies. We're generally averse to companies with declining revenues, but we're not alone in that. Don't let a share price decline ruin your calm. You make better decisions when you're calm.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
NYSE:LUMN Earnings and Revenue Growth May 1st 2024
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. You can see what analysts are predicting for Lumen Technologies in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
A Different Perspective
Lumen Technologies shareholders are down 49% for the year, but the market itself is up 24%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 13% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.
Lumen Technologies is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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オーストラリアでは、moomooの投資商品及びサービスはMoomoo Securities Australia Limitedによって提供され、オーストラリア証券投資委員会(ASIC)の管理を受けております(AFSL No. 224663)。「金融サービスガイド」、「利用規約」、「プライバシーポリシー」などの詳細は、Moomoo Securities Australia Limitedのウェブサイトhttps://www.moomoo.com/auでご確認いただけます。
オーストラリアでは、moomooの投資商品及びサービスはMoomoo Securities Australia Limitedによって提供され、オーストラリア証券投資委員会(ASIC)の管理を受けております(AFSL No. 224663)。「金融サービスガイド」、「利用規約」、「プライバシーポリシー」などの詳細は、Moomoo Securities Australia Limitedのウェブサイトhttps://www.moomoo.com/auでご確認いただけます。