Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that KWG Group Holdings Limited (HKG:1813) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
What Is KWG Group Holdings's Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that KWG Group Holdings had CN¥73.3b in debt in December 2023; about the same as the year before. On the flip side, it has CN¥1.72b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥71.6b.
SEHK:1813 Debt to Equity History April 29th 2024
How Healthy Is KWG Group Holdings' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, KWG Group Holdings had liabilities of CN¥114.7b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥34.7b due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥1.72b and CN¥1.53b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥146.1b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥1.19b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, KWG Group Holdings would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if KWG Group Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Over 12 months, KWG Group Holdings reported revenue of CN¥16b, which is a gain of 18%, although it did not report any earnings before interest and tax. That rate of growth is a bit slow for our taste, but it takes all types to make a world.
Caveat Emptor
Importantly, KWG Group Holdings had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Its EBIT loss was a whopping CN¥7.9b. Reflecting on this and the significant total liabilities, it's hard to know what to say about the stock because of our intense dis-affinity for it. Sure, the company might have a nice story about how they are going on to a brighter future. But the reality is that it is low on liquid assets relative to liabilities, and it lost CN¥19b in the last year. So we're not very excited about owning this stock. Its too risky for us. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that KWG Group Holdings is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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