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Is Lepu Biopharma (HKG:2157) A Risky Investment?

Is Lepu Biopharma (HKG:2157) A Risky Investment?

樂普生物製藥(HKG: 2157)是風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  04/17 03:03

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Lepu Biopharma Co., Ltd. (HKG:2157) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

禾倫·巴菲特曾說過一句名言:“波動性遠非風險的代名詞。”當我們思考一家公司的風險有多大時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。我們注意到,樂普生物製藥有限公司(HKG: 2157)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務會帶來多大的風險?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務會帶來什麼風險?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

當企業無法通過自由現金流或以誘人的價格籌集資金來輕鬆履行這些義務時,債務和其他負債就會成爲風險。資本主義的組成部分是 “創造性破壞” 過程,在這種過程中,倒閉的企業被銀行家無情地清算。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低廉的價格籌集新的股本,從而永久稀釋股東。話雖如此,最常見的情況是公司合理地管理債務,而且對自己有利。當我們考慮公司使用債務時,我們首先將現金和債務放在一起考慮。

What Is Lepu Biopharma's Net Debt?

樂普生物製藥的淨負債是多少?

As you can see below, at the end of December 2023, Lepu Biopharma had CN¥694.3m of debt, up from CN¥650.0m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has CN¥489.6m in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥204.7m.

如下所示,截至2023年12月底,樂普生物製藥的債務爲6.943億元人民幣,高於去年同期的6.50億元人民幣。點擊圖片查看更多細節。另一方面,它擁有4.896億元的現金,淨負債約爲2.047億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SEHK:2157 Debt to Equity History April 17th 2024
SEHK: 2157 2024 年 4 月 17 日債務與股本比率的歷史記錄

A Look At Lepu Biopharma's Liabilities

看看樂普生物製藥的負債

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Lepu Biopharma had liabilities of CN¥899.6m due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥596.0m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥489.6m as well as receivables valued at CN¥158.1m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥847.9m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到,樂普生物製藥在12個月內到期的負債爲8.996億元人民幣,之後到期的負債爲5.96億元人民幣。除了這些債務外,它有4.896億元的現金以及價值1.581億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總額高出8.479億元人民幣。

Of course, Lepu Biopharma has a market capitalization of CN¥6.52b, so these liabilities are probably manageable. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Lepu Biopharma's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

當然,樂普生物製藥的市值爲652億元人民幣,因此這些負債可能是可以控制的。話雖如此,很明顯,我們應該繼續監控其資產負債表,以免情況惡化。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,未來的收益將決定樂普生物製藥未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

In the last year Lepu Biopharma wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 1,347%, to CN¥225m. That's virtually the hole-in-one of revenue growth!

去年,樂普生物製藥在息稅前利潤水平上沒有盈利,但其收入增長了1347%,達到2.25億元人民幣。這實際上是收入增長的一桿進洞!

Caveat Emptor

Caveat Emptor

Even though Lepu Biopharma managed to grow its top line quite deftly, the cold hard truth is that it is losing money on the EBIT line. Indeed, it lost CN¥390m at the EBIT level. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. So we think its balance sheet is a little strained, though not beyond repair. For example, we would not want to see a repeat of last year's loss of CN¥22m. So to be blunt we do think it is risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Lepu Biopharma , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

儘管樂普生物製藥成功地實現了收入增長,但冷酷的事實是,它在息稅前利潤線上虧損。事實上,它在息稅前利潤水平上損失了3.9億元人民幣。當我們審視這一點並回顧其資產負債表上相對於現金的負債時,對我們來說,公司有任何債務似乎是不明智的。因此,我們認爲其資產負債表有些緊張,儘管並非無法修復。例如,我們不希望看到去年2200萬元人民幣的虧損重演。因此,坦率地說,我們確實認爲這是有風險的。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。我們已經向Lepu Biopharma發現了一個警告信號,了解它們應該是您投資過程的一部分。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

歸根結底,通常最好將注意力集中在沒有淨負債的公司身上。您可以訪問我們的此類公司的特別名單(所有公司都有利潤增長記錄)。它是免費的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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