Intelligent finance and economics app found through TrendForce Jiabang Consulting China solar industry tendering database statistics that in March 2024, it publicly announced about 21.37GW solar module bidding, an increase of 85% compared with the previous month. After the Spring Festival holiday, companies actively carried out tendering activities, plus the gradually warmer weather, distributed and centralized projects gradually started, driving the increase of bidding steadily.

In Q1 2024, the bidding volume of photovoltaic modules is about 51.5GW, and the bidding proportion of N-type modules exceeds 80%.

According to statistics, in Q1 2024, the bidding volume of photovoltaic modules is about 51.5GW, which is decreasing compared with the previous quarter and year. Among them, the bid volume of N-type modules reached 41.5GW, accounting for 80.62%. The acceptance of N-type modules has greatly increased, and the demand for domestic and foreign products has switched faster than expected.

HJT modules have emerged, and the demand for lightweight and flexible modules is evident. According to incomplete statistics, since 2023, there have been about 3.4GW HJT bidding projects in photovoltaic module bidding. In Q1 2024, the HJT bidding volume reached 2.3GW, and the demand is expected to accelerate release. Currently, there is also some demand for lightweight and flexible modules in the market.

Figure: Monthly bidding capacity (MW) of domestic components from 2023 to March 2024

The proportion of double-sided components is about 62%, and the demand continues to rise.

From the perspective of tendering owners, in March, China National Nuclear Corporation's Xinhuashuili and CNP (Nanjing) shared 10GW of photovoltaic module tenders, followed by China Huadian Corporation's first batch of 9GW of photovoltaic module centralized procurement tenders in 2024; in Q1 2024, the top 10 bidding owners accounted for 90% of the total bidding volume.

The bidding proportion of 540W and above, and 570W and above modules is about 97%; the bidding scale of 540W and above modules in Q1 2024 is about 19GW (37%), the bidding scale of 570W and above modules is about 31GW (60%), and the bidding scale of 600W and above modules is 1.62GW (3%).

The bidding proportion of double-sided components is 62%; among the 51.5GW component bidding, the clearly bid scale of double-sided components reached 32GW, accounting for about 62%, among which the bid scale of double-sided double-glass accounted for about 27% (13.8GW).

Figure: Single/double size of domestic component bidding, unit:%

The bidding price range for P-type modules widened, and the price squeeze continued.

In mid-March, Lingxinyuan, Shenzhen Gas, and Three Gorges Group shared a 1.1GW component procurement project opening bid. The bid price was between 0.795 yuan/W and 0.929 yuan/W, and the average bid price was 0.841 yuan/W. Compared with February, the range of bid prices widened and the average price continued to decline, mainly due to different sales strategies adopted by component companies.

Figure: Trends of P-type component bidding prices in Q1 2024, unit: yuan/W

TOPCon's average bid price is continuing to decline, and the willingness of head enterprises to raise prices is strong.

In March, there were about 9.3GW of N-type component centralized procurement openings, with bid prices ranging from 0.839 yuan/W to 1.003 yuan/W, and an average bid price of 0.887 yuan/W. This was a decrease of 0.045 yuan/W compared with the average bid price in February, and the price gap with PERC continued to decline. Among them, on March 14, the Three Gorges Group's framework centralized procurement (first batch) of photovoltaic modules in 2024 opened bids, and the N-type section offered a price range of 0.839-1.003 yuan/W, with an average price of 0.907 yuan/W. From the bidding rhythm of the top 10 companies, the willingness of head enterprises to raise prices is relatively strong. Compared with the opening price of 7GW of component procurement by PetroChina in February, companies with sufficient standing orders bid high prices. The overall bid price and average price of the N-type section were slightly higher than the previous opening price of about 0.903 yuan/W by PetroChina.

Figure: Trends of N-type TOPCon component bidding prices in Q1 2024, unit: yuan/W

The price of HJT components has dropped significantly, and the market space is waiting to be tapped.

Affected by the decrease in raw material prices, the price of HJT components has fallen from 1.804 yuan/W in March 2023 to the current 1.116 yuan/W, a decrease of 38%. With subsequent scaling and optimization, prices still have room to fall.

The market space for HJT components needs to be opened up, and companies that are the first to lay out have the opportunity to enjoy dividends. According to incomplete statistics, from 2023 to Q1 2024, about 1.7GW of HJT component projects were opened for bidding, and the capacity of each project was mostly below the GW level, most of which were used for experimental projects. The market space still needs to be further opened up. At present, the production capacity of HJT components is relatively low, and the market competition environment is good, and the profit space is relatively secure.

図：2024年第1四半期国内N型モジュール入札価格動向、単位：元/W

2024年第1四半期に公表された受賞規模は91GWで、ファーストクラス企業の受賞規模が82%を占めた。

モジュール受賞結果（エントリーを含む）から見ると、2024年第1四半期に公表された受賞結果および受賞候補者の規模は91GWであり、既に定められた規模33.7GWを含み、第1位の受賞候補者の規模は57.3GWであった。明確な受賞容量の中で、ジンコ、ジンコウ、ロンジ、天合の4社のファーストクラス企業の受賞規模は55.1GWで、82%を占めた。TOP5企業（ロンジ（601012.SH）、天合光能（688599.SH）、ジンコウ（688223.SH）、トンウェイ（600438.SH）、アテス（688472.SH））の受賞規模は59.8GWで、88.7%を占めた。

トンウェイ、ショーシン、ジンコ定量規模が多く、それぞれ2.6GW、2.16GW、1.56GWである。ロンジ、天合、ジンコウ第1の受賞候補者の受賞規模が最も多い。

図：2024年第1四半期国内太陽光発電モジュール入札調達受賞規模、単位：MW

全体的に、分散型および集中型のプロジェクトが3月に逐次開始され、入札量が着実に増加した。価格面では、P型モジュールの入札価格範囲が拡大し、平均価格が持続的に下落している。TOPConの公開価格も持続的に下落し、トップ企業は価格引き揚げの意欲が強い。HJTモジュールの市場拡大余地は大きく、最初に布陣した企業がその恩恵を受ける可能性がある。