Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, HealthEquity fair value estimate is US$161
HealthEquity is estimated to be 49% undervalued based on current share price of US$82.79
The US$97.78 analyst price target for HQY is 39% less than our estimate of fair value
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of HealthEquity, Inc. (NASDAQ:HQY) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Crunching The Numbers
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$180.0m
US$261.5m
US$372.0m
US$445.5m
US$500.2m
US$546.6m
US$585.9m
US$619.3m
US$648.4m
US$674.1m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x3
Analyst x2
Analyst x3
Analyst x2
Est @ 12.27%
Est @ 9.28%
Est @ 7.18%
Est @ 5.71%
Est @ 4.69%
Est @ 3.97%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0%
US$170
US$233
US$313
US$353
US$374
US$386
US$390
US$389
US$385
US$377
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$3.4b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.0%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$19b÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)10= US$10b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$14b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$82.8, the company appears quite undervalued at a 49% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NasdaqGS:HQY Discounted Cash Flow April 3rd 2024
The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at HealthEquity as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for HealthEquity
Strength
Debt is well covered by cash flow.
Balance sheet summary for HQY.
Weakness
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
What else are analysts forecasting for HQY?
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For HealthEquity, there are three pertinent factors you should consider:
Financial Health: Does HQY have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does HQY's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
