Last week, you might have seen that Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASO) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.9% to US$64.11 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$6.2b and statutory earnings per share of US$6.70 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Academy Sports and Outdoors is executing in line with expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Academy Sports and Outdoors after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, Academy Sports and Outdoors' 18 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$6.26b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 4.1% to US$6.69 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$6.38b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.27 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$77.00, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Academy Sports and Outdoors analyst has a price target of US$85.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$65.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Academy Sports and Outdoors is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Academy Sports and Outdoors' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 5.9% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Academy Sports and Outdoors is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Academy Sports and Outdoors. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$77.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Academy Sports and Outdoors going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It might also be worth considering whether Academy Sports and Outdoors' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
先週、Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASO) は、市場に対して今年の完全な結果を発表したかもしれません。初期の反応は、株価が先週に9.9%下落し、64.11ドルになりました。全体的には信頼できる結果であり、62億ドルの収益とアナリストの予想に両方とも合致するUS$6.70の法的なEPSがあり、Academy Sports and Outdoorsが期待通りに実行していることを示しています。アナリストたちは通常、毎回の収益報告で予測値を更新しており、彼らの見解が変わったかどうか、もしくは意識すべき新たな懸念材料があるかどうかを彼らの予想から判断できます。最新の法的予測を集約し、読者には、最新の結果の後Academy Sports and Outdoorsに対するアナリストの見解が変わったかどうかを確認することができます。
最新の結果を加味すると、Academy Sports and Outdoorsの18人のアナリストは、2025年の売上高が過去12か月とほぼ同じである62.6億ドルになると予想しています。法的なEPSは、同じ期間に4.1%下落してUS$6.69になると予想されています。この収益報告の前に、アナリストたちは2025年に63.8億ドルの収益と1株当たり7.27ドルのEPSを予測していました。そのため、最近の結果の後、全体的な感情が僅かに低下したことが分かります。収益の見通しに大きな変更はありませんが、アナリストたちはEPSの予測を少し下方修正しました。
コンセンサス価格のターゲットが広く変わらなかったことに驚かれるかもしれませんが、アナリストたちは明らかに、収益の予測の減少が評価にほとんど影響を与えないと示唆しています。また、アナリストの見解の範囲を見るのも良い指標になります。最も楽観的なAcademy Sports and Outdoorsのアナリストは1株当たり85ドルの価格目標を持っていますが、最も悲観的なアナリストは1株当たり65ドルと評価しています。分析は比較的集中した見積もりを持っており、Academy Sports and Outdoorsが予測しやすいビジネスであることを示唆しています。
もちろん、これらの予測を業界全体と比較してみることもできます。Academy Sports and Outdoorsの収益成長は大幅に鈍化することが予想されており、2025年の売上高は年率1.6%の成長が見込まれています。この数字は、過去5年間の成長率5.9%と比較しています。アナリストがカバーしているこの業界の他の企業は、年率5.0%で売上高を成長させることが予測されています。成長の鈍化率を考慮すると、Academy Sports and Outdoorsは業界参加者よりもゆっくりと成長することが予想されます。
総括すると、アナリストがEPSの予想を下方修正したことはAcademy Sports and Outdoorsに対してビジネス上の風向きが不利になる可能性があることを示唆しています。一方で、収益の予想に大きな変更はありませんでしたが、業界全体に比べてパフォーマンスが悪くなると予想されています。 コンセンサス価格のターゲットは77ドルのままでしたが、最新の見通しでは目標価格に影響を与えるほどではありません。
ただし、会社の収益の長期的な軌道は、来年よりもずっと重要です。 2027年までAcademy Sports and Outdoorsの予測を無料で確認できます。データの基本的な数値に基づいた長期的な分析を提供することを目的としています。
また、Simply Wall Stプラットフォーム上の当社の債務分析ツールを使用して、Academy Sports and Outdoorsの債務負担が適切かどうかを検討する価値があるかもしれません。