It's been a good week for Stella International Holdings Limited (HKG:1836) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 4.6% to HK$12.40. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$1.5b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Stella International Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.18 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Stella International Holdings' seven analysts is for revenues of US$1.53b in 2024. This would reflect a reasonable 2.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 15% to US$0.20. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.18 in 2024. Although the analysts have lowered their revenue forecasts, they've also made a substantial gain in their earnings per share estimates, which implies there's been something of an uptick in sentiment following the latest results.
There's been no real change to the average price target of HK$13.91, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Stella International Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$15.60 and the most bearish at HK$11.70 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Stella International Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 2.4% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.0% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.8% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Stella International Holdings is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Stella International Holdings' earnings potential next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at HK$13.91, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Stella International Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Stella International Holdings you should know about.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Stella International Holdings Limited (HKG:1836)の株主にとって、今週は良い週になりました。同社が最新の通期決算を発表したため、株価は4.6%上昇し、HK$12.40になりました。その結果、収益は1.5億ドルで、アナリストが予測したとおりでしたが、株式当たりの法定利益は0.18ドルで、予想をわずかに上回る結果になりました。株式投資家にとって、収益は重要な時期であり、企業の業績を追跡し、アナリストが来年の予測を行うことができ、企業に対する感情が変わったかどうかを確認することができます。したがって、最新の収益の法定コンセンサス見通しを収集し、来年何が予想されるかを見てみましょう。
最新の結果を考慮すると、Stella International Holdingsの7人のアナリストによる現在のコンセンサスは、2024年の売上高が1.53億ドルであると考えています。これは、過去12か月間の収益に比べて2.4%の増加を反映しています。株式当たりの利益は、0.20ドルに上昇する見込みです。この報告に向けて、アナリストは2024年の収益が1.58億ドル、株式当たりの利益(EPS)が0.18ドルになるようモデリングしていました。アナリストは収益の予測を下方修正しましたが、株式当たりの利益の見通しを大幅に向上させたため、最新の結果により感情が急上昇したことを示唆しています。
HK$13.91の平均目標株価には実質的な変化がありません。低い収益と高い利益予想が長期的な時間枠で会社の評価に実質的な影響を与えることはないと予想されています。株式アナリストによる価格目標を考える別の方法は、価格目標の範囲を分析することです。範囲が広い予測は、ビジネスの可能性の異なる結果に対する多様な見方を示唆する可能性があります。Stella International Holdingsには、最も強気なアナリストが株価をHK$15.60、最も弱気なアナリストが株価をHK$11.70に評価する異なる見解があります。そのため、この場合、アナリストの価格目標にあまり信用を置かないことが適切です。平均値は予想の範囲内であり、この広範な予測の平均値に基づいて決定を下すのは素晴らしいアイデアではない可能性があります。
大局を見て、これらの予測を理解する一つの方法は、過去の業績や業界の成長予測、そして将来の成長予測と比較することです。分析家たちは、Stella International Holdingsの成長が加速することを確実に予想しており、2024年までの年間成長率が2.4%であり、過去5年間の年間平均成長率1.0%に比べて優位にランクインしています。対照的に、業界全体で(アナリストがカバーする)他の企業は、年間9.8%の収益成長を予測しています。成長が加速しているにもかかわらず、Stella International Holdingsは、業界平均よりも有意義に遅い成長が予想されています。