Zhitong Finance learned that Huachuang Securities issued a research report stating that the inventory of head liquor makers is at a healthy level and the supply and demand fundamentals are relatively stable. The feedback from Spring Sugar is generally good, and there is no lack of catalytic factors such as good price plates, repurchase/increased holdings/dividends in the short term. The current sector valuation is still not high, and it is recommended to pay attention to the white liquor symbol with more certain first-quarter report. The reason why Spring Sugar feedback is relatively good: firstly, the time of Spring Sugar this year is close to the Spring Festival, and the mood of the Spring Festival is still there. Secondly, most liquor companies on the supply side are relatively calm after the holiday and have not increased shipments. Coupled with the measure of most old liquor brands intensively raising prices, the industry's price plate is stable, and the off-season expectation is good. Third, the market expectation was not high, and there was no significant weakening compared to the same period last year. Wulu and other companies and channel levels' planning and feedback actively boost their confidence.

Recommendations: First, focus on the core leader Maotai (600519.SH) with certainty (abundant operation and performance as stable as Mount Tai, and long-term value highlighted), and Fen Jiu (600809.SH) suitable for inertia faster growth, Spring Festival bulk pricing rebound. Secondly, Wuliangye (000858.SZ) and Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ) in the price range of thousands of yuan have active layout and better marginality, existing expectation differences. Continuous recommendation for regional leaders with relatively prosperous market and certain performance, Gujing (000596.SZ) and Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery joint-stock Co., Ltd. (603369.SH).

Spring Sugar observation: China Merchants function is weakened and the atmosphere is weaker than last year

The main reason is that last year's scene was opened up "retaliatory" travel, and liquor companies and channels expanded and participated enthusiastically. Secondly, the industry is still in the stage of digesting inventory, and the distilleries are beginning to be careful with their finances. The willingness of the agent channels to carry new products is not strong. Specifically,

From the perspective of booth arrangement, liquor companies are starting to be cautious. In recent years, most of the head brands have basically closed the investment channels, and subsidiary brands that are still under investment mostly rely on their own endowments and local business personnel for precise investment. Long-tailed sauce wines that were enthusiastic about merchant recruitment in the past two years are also in the adjustment period. Therefore, in addition to popular hotels such as Jinjiang Hotel and Minshan Hotel, hotels in Chengdu are generally well reserved during Spring Sugar, and prices do not rise much compared to usual, and booth prices are slightly lower than last year. There are more mid-to-low-end brand and long-tail mixed brand booths.

From the perspective of participation, channels continue to be cautious. During the Spring Sugar period, the overall passenger flow is slightly less than last year (airline tickets and hotel prices are relatively stable), and the related activities have been reduced in scale. There are significant differences in traffic flow between different hotel exhibitions, and the situation of queuing and congestion at popular hotels such as Jinjiang Hotel still exists. Channel merchants are generally cautious and watching, and their willingness to carry new products is low, and more exchanges are taking place in the industry.

Spring Sugar feedback: But the overall feedback of Spring Sugar channels slightly exceeded expectations, and the improvement in price expectations is the core

From the feedback of channels in various regions, the industry has gradually entered the off-season after the holiday, although the overall growth has been squeezed, channel confidence and feedback are relatively good, and the end market can still circulate normally. Especially the popular price range below 300 yuan, the demand resilience is still there. Under the influence of scanning code, the opening of old famous liquors is better, and the overall price plate is stable. The slight increase in batch pricing of Puwu effectively boosts channel confidence, and the inventory is under control. The probability of industry systemic risk is small.

The reason why feedback is relatively good: firstly, the time of Spring Sugar this year is close to the Spring Festival, and the mood of the Spring Festival is still there. Secondly, most liquor companies on the supply side are relatively calm after the holiday and have not increased shipments. Coupled with the measure of most old liquor brands intensively raising prices, the industry's price plate is stable, and the off-season expectation is good. Third, the market expectation was not high, and there was no significant weakening compared to the same period last year. Wulu and other companies and channel levels' planning and feedback actively boost their confidence.

Spring Sugar highlights: The core highlights and expectation differences in the price range of thousands of yuan, Wuliangye in "price" and Luzhou Laojiao in "quantity"

In the past, Wulu had taken uniform action on quantity and price strategies, and Guojiao had mostly adopted a follow-up strategy. At present, Wuliangye chooses to reduce production and raise prices, and Laojiao prioritizes sales volume, and the game in the price range of thousands of yuan is intensifying.

Wuliangye: short-term price targets and expectations are positive. Channel feedback currently accounts for 80% of payment, and shipment progress is 45% faster than the same period last year, and inventory is at a low level. The channel expects the Puwu short-term batch price to increase to 970 yuan. The first is that after the price increase, the batch price will be increased compared to the channel profit, and there will be a reluctance to sell sentiment. The second is that Wuliangye's new marketing leader has strictly checked for smuggling, and has maintained stability and not shipped after the holiday, and the management measures of the channel are effective, and the operating ability of the supply side has marginally strengthened. Third, if the current supply and demand trend can continue, the channel is expected to actively pay 1,019 yuan after the price increase, and the cost will increase to raise the batch price.

luzhou laojiao: 支払い出荷フィードバックが良好です。老窖戦略はシェア優先です。今年の淡季は以前ほどの厳しい在庫管理は行っておらず、支払い出荷は前年比で弾力的な成長を続けています。販路フィードバックでは、高級国壜銘酒と低度国壜が低声で増加しています(開封率は30%に向上)。販路コストはわずかに減少し、エンドユーザーは依然としてQRコードをスキャンして瓶を開けることが多く、価格の動きは比較的安定しています。会社の支払い出荷フィードバックが良好な理由について、戦略的なシェアの優先表示や販路の推進力強化などの要因に加え、五個のQRコード紅包同比効果の表れや普通五元による在庫管理などの要因が関係していると判断されます。

リスクに注目：年節後の消費需要は低下し、在庫の消化状況が予想を下回り、競争が激化するなどの危険性があります。