Vicon Holdings Limited (HKG:3878) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 60% in the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Vicon Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Construction industry is similar at about 0.3x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

What Does Vicon Holdings' P/S Mean For Shareholders?

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, Vicon Holdings has been doing very well. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to taper off, which has kept the P/S from rising. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like Vicon Holdings' is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 130%. The latest three year period has also seen a 18% overall rise in revenue, aided extensively by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 12% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

In light of this, it's curious that Vicon Holdings' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

Vicon Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Vicon Holdings revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Vicon Holdings (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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